More than 5 billion people would die of hunger following a full-scale nuclear war between the U.S. and Russia. Under this largest war scenario, more than 75% of the planet would be starving within two years.

 Even a localized India-Pakistan war would also reverberate worldwide, resulting in possibly two billion deaths from lack of food.

“The data tell us one thing: We must prevent a nuclear war from ever happening,” said Alan Robock, a Distinguished Professor of climate science in the Department of Environmental Sciences at Rutgers University and co-author of the study. “If nuclear weapons exist, they can be used, and the world has come close to nuclear war several times.” 

Nuclear war would cause a global famine and kill billions, study finds (phys.org)

 The attainment gap between poorer pupils and their better-off classmates is just as large now as it was 20 years ago.

The study found that disadvantaged pupils start school behind their better-off peers, and those inequalities persist through their school years and beyond – eventually having an impact on earnings.

There is overwhelming evidence that the education system in England leaves too many young people behind, and despite decades of policy focus, there has been little if any shift in the gaps in educational attainment between children from different backgrounds.

The report said: “Despite decades of policy attention, there has been virtually no change in the ‘disadvantage gap’ in GCSE attainment over the past 20 years. While GCSE attainment has been increasing over time, 16-year-olds who are eligible for free school meals are still around 27 percentage points less likely to earn good GCSEs than less disadvantaged peers.”

At the start of their educational journey, just 57% of English pupils eligible for free school meals reached a good level of development at the end of reception in 2019, compared with 74% of their better-off peers, the report notes.

Fewer than half of disadvantaged children reached expected levels of attainment at the end of primary school, compared with nearly 70% of their better-off peers. Of those who do achieve the expected level, just 40% of disadvantaged pupils go on to receive good GCSEs in English and maths, compared with 60% of better-off students.

Perhaps the biggest failure of the education system, the report suggests, is that for those leaving school with poor GCSEs, there is a lack of a clear path and “second chances”, leaving millions disadvantaged throughout their lifetime.

The report finds the relationship between family background and attainment is not limited to the poorest, but educational performance improves as family income goes up. Just over 10% of young people in middle-earning families gained at least one A or A* grade at GCSE, compared to a third of pupils from the wealthiest tenth of families.

These inequalities lead to vast gaps in earning, the report says, pointing out that by the age of 40 the average UK employee with a degree earns twice as much as someone qualified to GCSE level or below.

Geoff Barton, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, added: “Government policy is in a rut of meaningless targets, empty rhetoric and pitiful levels of funding”

No improvement in school attainment gap in England for 20 years, report says | Education | The Guardian

 As with Covid, corporate interests are taking priority over getting monkeypox vaccines to people.

Britain expects to run out of vaccines in the next couple of weeks, with no further deliveries planned until late September. The sole supplier of the only approved vaccine for monkeypox is a Danish pharmaceutical company called Bavarian Nordic. In a case of almost unbelievably unlucky timing, the company’s bulk production line has been closed for refurbishment. Even more, ironically, the company has millions of doses in the freezer, but getting them into vials and ready to go isn’t a small job. The company is looking for other factories to help with this. 

But even when it does happen, the overwhelming bulk of the doses have been bought by the US, with a trickle going to other high-income countries. Africa is so far the only continent to suffer more than a couple of deaths from monkeypox to date, yet it hasn’t received a single dose of vaccine so far.

The vaccine – known as Jynneos, Imvamune or Imvanex – was developed as a safe immunisation for smallpox, and was being kept on hold in case of a biological terrorist attack. It was funded, to the tune of $2bn, by the US government, but like most medicines, it was patented. Bavarian Nordic, which holds the patent, dictates who can make the vaccine, how many doses are made, who gets to buy them and at what price.

 Bavarian Nordic will make a huge windfall, producing and selling as much as the company can manage. Its shareholders have already seen the price of their stock triple.

With monkeypox, profits are once again being put ahead of protecting life | Nick Dearden | The Guardian

 ‘Real’ pay – adjusted for inflation – fell by a record 3% in the quarter to June as the cost of living crisis deepened.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics showed average total pay, including bonuses, grew by 5.1% between April and June while regular pay excluding bonuses grew by 4.7%.

However, when adjusted for inflation (which reached a 40-year high of 9.4% in June), total pay fell 2.5% and regular pay fell by 3%, the fastest decline since comparable records began in 2001.

Ben Harrison, director of the Work Foundation at Lancaster University, a think tank for improving work in the UK, said: “Ahead of next week’s energy price cap announcement, there is more bad news for workers as real wages fell by a record 3% on the year. With inflation at 9.4%, and the Bank of England predicting it will peak at 13% in early 2024, people across the UK are facing more tough decisions as their regular pay fails to keep pace with rising prices. The six million workers in severely insecure jobs will be hardest hit and are already running out of options. Many have already tried to find more hours work and cutback spending but continue to face great uncertainty.”

The average household’s annual grocery bill is now set to soar by £533 to £5,128, the equivalent to £10.25 every week.

(1) UK real pay falls by record 3%, as job vacancies also decline – business live (theguardian.com)

 Sickle cell disease changes the shape of blood cells into crescents,  These cells then stick together, causing blood clots, intense pain and anaemia, hindering blood flow. Sufferers experience severe painful episodes, which can require hospital admission. The drug Hydroxyurea can reduce the number of episodes, but the only cure is a bone marrow transplant. Life expectancy can be 20 to 30 years shorter than the general population.

About 5% of the global population carry the gene and some 300,000 babies are born with the disease each year. The majority with the disease in low-income countries will die before they are five. The condition mainly affects people of African or Caribbean heritage.  In Kenya, where nearly 14,000 children are born with the condition every year.

The drug hydroxyurea is commonly used to prevent sickle-shaped blood cells from forming and is the most affordable option to manage the symptoms, although it does not work for everyone and the term ‘affordable’ is a stretch.

Manjusha Chatterjee, from NCD Alliance, said sickle cell and other non-communicable diseases are more than a health issue.

“They are a major human rights and equity issue, as they disproportionately burden the poorest and most marginalised populations. In countries everywhere, this includes ethnic minorities. Urgent steps need to be taken so that health systems are inclusive and no one is left behind,” she said. “Although millions of people around the world live with sickle cell disease, it is still considered a rare condition. Simply getting a correct diagnosis of a rare disease is difficult – on average, it takes seven years.”

Kenyan, Lea Kilenga, explains “My message to people with sickle cell is there’s no saviour coming. We’ve had 100-plus years to wait for them, they have not shown up to make significant change for us. So we must make this change for ourselves and others like us.”

Sickle cell disease: nearly 50% of patients receive poor care, says global study | Global development | The Guardian

     While the media focus on the one-year anniversary of the US-NATO retreat from Afghanistan, the country’s people prepare for the coming winter.

Simultaneous crises in the country have caused some of the worst suffering in recent generations. Disasters have battered the country for more than a year now, with new shocks worsening conditions that were already dire. In late June, an earthquake struck south-East Afghanistan killing more than 1,000 people and destroying or damaging homes of 60,000 households leaving them exposed to the elements. Starting July into August, off-season rains brought floods that washed away livelihoods and aggravated humanitarian needs across more than 20 provinces.

The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) is renewing its call for increased global solidarity with the people of Afghanistan who continue to face immense humanitarian need.

Mawlawi Mutiul Haq Khales, Afghan Red Crescent Acting President, said:

“The past 12 months have been extremely difficult for our people as economic hardship, exacerbated by sanctions-related limitations to access income, piles pressure on millions who were already battling acute food insecurity, poverty, and many other shocks…”

Necephor Mghendi, IFRC’s Head of Delegation for Afghanistan, said:

“The people of Afghanistan cannot be forgotten. This is now one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world, with over 20 million people remaining in need of urgent assistance.”

The IFRC and Afghan Red Crescent are ramping up preparedness for a potentially harsh winter, which will be upon the country in a few months. The greatest concern is high-altitude areas where temperatures are very likely to drop below minus-10 degrees.

Afghanistan: Unending crises driving millions to breaking point – Afghanistan | ReliefWeb

 Afghans are struggling with many crises. There is the devastation brought about by decades of war. Climate change has led to droughts across large parts of the country for three years. Elsewhere, it has caused flooding or unseasonal snowfall in the middle of June. This year, the country suffered another major earthquake.

More than a million children are severely malnourished and half of Afghanistan’s population (20 million people) is going hungry. Since January, 13,000 newborns have died from malnutrition and hunger-related diseases, 95% of people lack enough to eat, and 3.5M children need nutritional support.

“Hell on Earth” is how David Beasley, the executive director of the UN World Food Programme (WFP) described the situation in Afghanistan.

The  think tank International Crisis Group fears that “hunger and hardship following the Taliban takeover could kill more Afghan people than all the bombs and bullets of the last two decades.”

Nora Hassanien, acting country director in Afghanistan for the humanitarian organization Save the Children, told DW of “desperate families” who were having to resort to increasingly extreme and harmful coping strategies. “That includes selling their children”

The health sector is collapsing. 

Samira Sayed Rahman, who works for the aid organization International Rescue Committee (IRC), told DW what she saw when she visited a hospital in the eastern province of Paktia: There were not enough doctors, not enough nurses. “The doctors we spoke with have not been paid for the past six months,” she said. “The wards were full of women cradling malnourished children. In the neonatal unit, three babies had to share an incubator.”

 But the biggest challenge, according to Rahman from the IRC, is the suspension of payments from abroad.

For 20 years, the international community covered three-quarters of public expenditure. A plethora of development projects saw roads, schools and hospitals built and provided for their upkeep. But after the Taliban took power, the flow of money was cut off overnight.

“There were about 400,000 people employed in the public sector, plus about 200,000 in the security sector,” Rahman explained. “Many of these jobs have disappeared; unemployment is higher than ever and so is inflation.”

When it comes to hunger in Afghanistan, Rahman is convinced that: “This crisis is man-made; it was caused by the international community.” 

Nora Hassanien of Save the Children shares that assessment, adding: “No amount of humanitarian aid will really solve the problem here. It needs a bigger-picture solution.”

This is also the view of the International Crisis Group. The think tank’s Afghanistan specialist Graeme Smith wrote: “Pulling back from the precipice of a more profound disaster will require ending the country’s isolation, attracting development aid, and persuading Western and regional governments to help with economic recovery.”

The goal of these sanctions is the economic isolation of Afghanistan, according to Conrad Schetter from the Bonn International Center for Conflict Studies (BICC). 

“The Afghans have been catapulted back into a subsistence economy.” 

Human Rights Watch Director Kenneth Roth writes that aid isn’t enough without a functioning banking system that is not hamstrung by sanctions. Without access to its foreign exchange reserves, the central bank is very limited in the extent to which it can perform its role in the Afghan economy. Sanctions and the lack of foreign currency make transferring money to Afghanistan nearly impossible.

In theory, special permits can be used for humanitarian purposes. In practice, however, they are very difficult to obtain.

A spokesman from Germany’s Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) described the “non-functioning banking sector, which makes it difficult to get money to Afghanistan at all,” as “a major challenge in implementing the plans.”

Humanitarian groups must therefore adopt unconventional methods. In an interview with DW, Elke Gottschalk, regional director for Asia for the German aid organization Welthungerhilfe, described how money transfers must be processed through alternative channels, called hawala networks. It works like this: Welthungerhilfe transfers money to the account of a hawala dealer, known as a hawaladar, in a third country. “This agent then makes sure that money arrives in Kabul — in cash. We count it, then it can be used.” The International Rescue Committee is also reliant on the hawala system, Samira Sayed Rahman confirmed. However, this is “not a reliable and sustainable method.” 

The administrator of the United Nations Development Program, Achim Steiner, made his position clear. At the World Economic Forum in Davos in May, he said, ‘We cannot abandon 40 million Afghans simply on the principle of moral outrage.”

Afghanistan is starving and the West is partly to blame | Asia | An in-depth look at news from across the continent | DW | 14.08.2022

 £60m of food has been wasted on farms because of a labour shortage, according to the National Farmers’ Union, which found at least £22m of fruit and vegetables had been wasted so far this year.

Tom Bradshaw, the union’s deputy president, said: “It’s nothing short of a travesty that quality, nutritious food is being wasted at a time when families across the country are already struggling to make ends meet because of soaring living costs.

Brexit has reduced access to temporary workers coming in from the EU. Up to 38,000 visas have been made available under this year’s seasonal workers scheme, which offers short-term visas to those helping with food production. However, the farming industry say it needs 70,000 alone. Less than 4% of seasonal workers come from the UK, as those permanently living here and seeking work often do not live close to farms and may find it difficult to move for seasonal work and live in temporary accommodation. More than two-thirds of farm workers come via the seasonal workers scheme.

The latest concerns over UK fruit and vegetables follows fears for the potato crop, with half of England’s expected to fail because it cannot be irrigated. Even crops that are usually drought-tolerant, such as maize, have been failing. Milk production is also down nationally because of a lack of food for cows.

Up to £60m in UK crops left to rot owing to lack of workers, says NFU | Farming | The Guardian

 A 60-year-old woman in England’s poorest areas typically has the same level of illness as a woman 16 years older in the richest areas, a study into health inequalities has found.

Women in England’s poorest places are diagnosed with a long-term illness at the age of 40 on average, whereas that does not happen to those in the most prosperous places until 48.

Impoverished women spend 43.6 years, or 52% of their lifespan, beset by diagnosed illness, while for their best-off peers it is 41 years, or 46% of their life cycle.

In addition, women from the most deprived backgrounds die on average at 83.6 years old, more than five years sooner than the 88.8-year life expectancy of well-off women.

“In human terms, these stark disparities show that at the age of 40, the average woman living in the poorest areas in England is already being treated for her first long-term illness. This condition means discomfort, a worse quality of life and additional visits to the GP, medication or hospital, depending on what it is. At the other end of the spectrum, the average 40-year-old woman will live a further eight years – about 10% of her life – without diminished quality of life through illness,” Researcher Toby Watt said. “Throughout the rest of her life the impoverished 40-year-old is more likely to have breathing difficulties from chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder, experience alcohol problems, chronic pain, anxiety, depression, and suffer a heart attack or stroke at younger ages. If she makes it to 80, which is less likely, she will still be receiving treatment for and living with more severe illness than her wealthier counterparts.”

At 60 a man living in the most deprived 10% of the country typically has the burden of ill-health experienced by a counterpart in the wealthiest 10% at the age of 70.

The poorest men are expected to spend 42.7 years free of disease, whereas it is much longer among the best-off 10% of the population – 49.2 years. And their life expectancy is 78.3 years, compared with 87.1 for the richest.

He and his team found that inequalities in the burden of disease start in childhood and persist and change in nature through adulthood into older age. However, they are largely explicable over the life cycle by just a handful of illnesses: chronic pain, diabetes, severe breathing problems, anxiety, depression, strokes, heart attacks and drink-related problems.

Poorest women in England have same ill health at 60 as richest at 76 – study | Health | The Guardian

  The pay of the top 1% of earners across the UK – those already on more than £170,000 a year – is rising at an average annualised rate of 9.1%.

At the same time, those in the lowest 10% – those earning below £8,000 a year – have seen their pay rise by just 1.3%. 

the rate of inflation, currently at a 40-year high of 9.4% and forecast by the Bank of England to hit 13% in the coming months. 

Frances O’Grady, the general secretary of the Trades Union Congress, says such stories are familiar up and down the country. “Working people are at breaking point, having been left at the mercy of soaring bills after a decade of standstill wages and universal credit cuts. But for the wealthiest, it’s business as usual. It’s not just pay at the top that is soaring. Bonuses in the City are at a record high and dividend payouts to shareholders are booming. Without urgent action, the cost of living crisis will deepen the class divide in this country even further.”

‘Some people must be earning millions’: inequality in the UK’s highest-earning constituency | Inequality | The Guardian