One reason why this blog concentrates attention on world population demographics is that  socialism was declared an impossibility because there were just too many people to look after in security and comfort. Mostly, the over-population alarmists like the climate change denialists have been proved wrong but they are still out there disguising their misanthropic prejudices. This story from the Guardian is of interest. 

In 1968, the Stanford biologists Paul and Anne Ehrlich infamously predicted that millions would soon starve to death in their bestselling, doom-saying book The Population Bomb; since then, neo-Malthusian rumblings of imminent disaster have been a continual refrain in certain sections of the environmental movement – fears that were recently given voice on David Attenborough’s documentary Life on our Planet.

At the time the Ehrlichs were publishing their apocalyptic prophecies, the world was at its peak of population growth, which at that point was increasing at a rate of 2.1% a year. Since then, the global population has risen from 3.5 billion to 7.67 billion. Also the growth rate has slowed considerably. As women’s empowerment advances, and access to contraception improves, birth rates and fertility rates around the world have fallen, and in many countries now there are fewer than 2.1 children per woman – the minimum required to maintain a stable population.

It have been a problem in the world’s wealthiest nations – notably in Japan and Germany – for some time. In South Korea last year, birthrates fell to 0.84 per woman, a record low despite extensive government efforts to promote childbearing. From next year, cash bonuses of 2m won (£1,320) will be paid to every couple expecting a child, on top of existing child benefit payments.

The fertility rate is also falling dramatically in England and Wales – from 1.9 children per woman in 2012 to just 1.65 in 2019. Provisional figures from the Office for National Statistics for 2020 suggest it could now be 1.6, which would be the lowest rate since before the second world war. The problem is even more severe in Scotland, where the rate has fallen from 1.67 in 2012 to 1.37 in 2019.

Increasingly this is also the case in middle-income countries too, including Thailand and Brazil. In Iran, a birthrate of 1.7 children per woman has alarmed the government; it recently announced that state clinics would no longer hand out contraceptives or offer vasectomies.

Thanks to this worldwide pattern of falling fertility levels, the UN now believes that we will see an end to population growth within decades – before the slide begins in earnest.  A study published in the Lancet  predicted that the global population would come to a peak much earlier than expected – reaching 9.73 billion in 2064 – before dropping to 8.79 billion by 2100. Falling birthrates, noted the authors, were likely to have significant “economic, social, environmental, and geopolitical consequences” around the world. It predicts that 23 countries would see their populations more than halve before the end of this century, including Spain, Italy and Ukraine. China, where a controversial one-child per couple policy – brought in to slow spiralling population growth – only ended in 2016, is now also expected to experience massive population declines in the coming years, by an estimated 48% by 2100. That is right. The problem is not over-population but under-population. The world faces a crisis of an ageing populations placing shrinking economies under ever greater strain.

Japan has been showing this trend for more than a decade, might offer some insight. Already there are too few people to fill all its houses – one in every eight homes now lies empty. In Japan, they call such vacant buildings akiya – ghost homes. Most are found in rural areas, these houses quickly fall into disrepair, leaving them as eerie presences in the landscape, thus speeding the decline of the neighbourhood. Many akiya have been left empty after the death of their occupants; inherited by their city-living relatives, many go unclaimed and untended. With tJapan’s population expected to fall from 127 million to 100 million or even lower by 2049, these akiya are set to grow ever more common – and are predicted to account for a third of all Japanese housing stock by 2033. As the rural population declines, old fields and neglected gardens are reclaimed by wildlife. Sightings of Asian black bears have been growing increasingly common in recent years, as the animals scavenge unharvested nuts and fruits.

In the EU an area the size of Italy is expected to be abandoned by 2030. Spain is among the European countries expected to lose more than half its population by 2100; already, three- quarters of Spanish municipalities are in decline. Galicia and Castilla y León are among the regions worst affected, as entire settlements have gradually emptied of their residents. More than 3,000 ghost villages now haunt the hills, standing in various states of dereliction. Rural abandonment on a large scale is one factor that has contributed to the recent resurgence of large carnivores in Europe: lynx, wolverines, brown bears and wolves have all seen increases in their populations over the last decade. In Spain, the Iberian wolf has rebounded from 400 individuals to more than 2,000, many of which are to be found haunting the ghost villages of Galicia, as they hunt wild boar and roe deer – whose numbers have also skyrocketed. A brown bear was spotted in Galicia last year for the first time in 150 years.

In this post-peak population world: smaller populations living in urban centres. While beyond the city limits, wildlife thrive and  animal roam.

 The Covid-19 technology access pool (C-Tap) was launched in May last year by the WHO to facilitate the sharing of patent-protected information to fight the virus, including diagnostics, therapeutics and trial data. The “pooling” of treatments and data would allow qualified manufacturers from around the world to produce critical equipment, drugs or vaccines without fear of prosecution for breaching patents. The goal would be to lower production costs, ease global shortages of key drugs and technology and, advocates say, ultimately end the pandemic sooner.

 It has attracted zero contributions in the eight months since it was established. We repeat, no technology or treatments have been shared.  This reflects the false messages put out by the drug-companies that they are co-operating to develop treatments for the pandemic which will benefit the more vulnerable nations. 

Another United Nations-backed patent-sharing platform, the medicines patent pool (MPP), widened its mandate last year to include Covid-19 treatments, but it too has so far not negotiated any deals for drugs, data or technology to fight the coronavirus pandemic.

Charles Gore, the executive director of the MPP, said the lack of engagement was symbolic of a widespread failure to tackle the pandemic in a global way. “Unfortunately what we’ve seen is too little of, ‘Let’s do this all together as a world’, and a little too much of me-first,” Gore said. He explained the pharmaceutical industry was following the lead of governments, who have sought to strike their own deals for vaccines, technology and treatments rather than prioritise global distribution. Gore said sharing technology or treatments could cost companies profits.

Others said the piecemeal approach to global access had contributed to shortages of lifesaving technology and treatments, scarcities that would also mark the rollout of vaccines until at least 2023, according to one analysis.

Ellen ‘t Hoen, a medical IP expert and campaigner, said wealthy governments around the world had poured billions of taxpayer dollars into developing vaccines that would be ultimately owned and controlled by companies and their shareholders.

WHO platform for pharmaceutical firms unused since pandemic began | World Health Organization | The Guardian

Since France went into its first Covid-19 lockdown last March, an imminent explosion of “lockdown babies” was expected. Instead, statistics show that instead of a baby boom, France seems to be experiencing a baby drought.

Rather than a baby boom, the numbers gathered by national statistics institute Insee revealed a 2 percent decline in France’s birthrate. Even though some of it could be attributed to a natural decline of our times, in part because women wait longer to have babies and therefore may not be as fertile, Insee underscored that the decrease in the latest statistics was indeed “steep”.

A recent study published by Demographic Research on the impact of Covid-19 on fertility plans in Italy, Germany, France, Spain and the United Kingdom – countries placed under lockdown in periods during 2020, and where a massive number of respondents confirmed couples had either postponed or fully abandoned their baby plans due to the pandemic. In France, 50.7 percent of people said they had postponed their plans to have a child, and 17.3 percent that they had abandoned them altogether.

The baby boom that never was: France sees sharp decline in ‘lockdown babies’ (france24.com)

 Federal lands are the source of about 10% of U.S. oil and gas supply. Fossil fuels produced on federally managed lands and waters contribute nearly 25% of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. Biden vows to toughen regulations and stop issuing new permits on federal lands, part of his sweeping plan to combat climate change and bring the economy to net zero emissions by 2050.

 But Biden’s promised ban on new oil and gas drilling on federal lands would take years to shut off production from top shale drillers because they already have stockpiled permits. The seven companies that control half the federal supply onshore in the Lower 48 states have leases and permits in hand that could last years.

“We have always been very confident that we will continue to develop and drill on federal acreage,” said David Hager, executive chairman of Devon Energy Corp, the biggest oil producer on onshore federal land in the Lower 48 states. “It’s embedded into the rights we have in the leases…”

Other top producers on federal land have issued public statements saying they have solid stockpiles of federal permits and an ability to meet tougher emissions regulations expected under Biden. They have also said they can quickly shift drilling to state or private acreage once federal permits dry up. EOG has said it has at least four years of federal permits.

 “When it comes to access to federal lands, that’s one of the things we’re not really worried about in our business. We have a lot of potential outside of federal land, too,” Chief Operating Officer Billy Helms said during an investor conference last year.

Occidental said last year it had well over 200 federal drilling permits in hand and had requested another roughly 200 permits on New Mexico acreage, where some of the richest reserves lie beneath federally owned property. Ameredev II, which produces about 10,000 barrels of oil per day in New Mexico’s Permian, also has federal drilling permits to last at least four years.

Big U.S. oil drillers have federal permits to mute effect of any Biden ban | Reuters

  The Covid-19 pandemic in Britain’s industrial heartlands and left the jobless rate higher than after the financial meltdown of the late 2000s, a report has found. In the first comprehensive study of its kind, researchers from Sheffield Hallam university have revealed the scale of the setback from twin health and economic emergencies on parts of the UK that went into the crisis lagging behind in terms of prosperity and wellbeing. The report by Christina Beatty and Steve Fothergill warned large parts of the Midlands, the north, Wales and Scotland would continue to struggle when the economy eventually recovers from the pandemic. About one-third of the UK’s population lives in the industrial towns, regional cities and former coalfields covered by the study. It found:

1. In the nine months between the start of the crisis in February last year and November 2020, unemployment rose by 310,000 in older industrial towns, 100,000 in the former coalfields and 140,000 in the main regional cities.

2. Over the same period claimant unemployment among 16-24-year-olds in older industrial Britain roughly doubled.

3. If one-third of the workers on furlough at the end of October were to lose their jobs, redundancies would increase by 230,000 in the older industrial towns, by 80,000 in the former coalfields and by 80,000 in the main regional cities.

4. By late 2020, the economic downturn had pushed the numbers on all out-of-work benefits across older industrial Britain to almost one-in-six of all adults of working age, and in some local authorities – such as parts of Middlesbrough, Knowsley and Blaenau Gwent – as high as 20%.

5. Up to the start of 2021, the rate of confirmed infections in older industrial Britain was on average 10-20% above the UK average, seen by the researchers as evidence of fewer people able to work from home.

6. The cumulative death rate in older industrial towns and the former coalfields was on average 30% above the UK average – a reflection of an older and less healthy population.

David and Victoria Beckham have paid themselves £14.5m – or nearly £40,000 for every day of the year – following the strong performance of the former footballer’s image rights sales.

David Beckham Ventures Limited (DBVL), which manages his brand and partnerships with the likes of Adidas, Haig Club whisky and the Sands hotel group, reported a £600,000 increase in annual revenue to £16.2m.

Beckhams pay themselves £40,000 a day after strong image rights sales | David Beckham | The Guardian

 The term used by German statisticians and politicians to denote foreigners and their descendants has been “people with a migration background.”  That was the label given to people who weren’t born into German citizenship. And to people whose mothers or fathers were not born German citizens. 

Today, that applies to a quarter of the population.

 A specialist commission of 24 politicians and academics appointed by the government has submitted its report to Chancellor Angela Merkel. One of its recommendations is to stop using the terms “migration background” or “immigrant background.” Instead, people should use the term “immigrants and their descendants,” commission chair Derya Caglar said. “In my case, this would mean that I am no longer the migrant, but rather the daughter or descendant of migrants,” as  her parents had immigrated from Turkey but she was born here. “And my children, who are currently defined as having a migration background, would simply be Germans,” she said.

Annette Widmann-Mauz, of the Christian Democrats (CDU), is in favor of the change. The term “migration background” encompasses so many groups now that it has lost much of its meaning.

“Many of the 21 million people to which the term is applied do not feel appropriately described by it,” she said. Widmann-Mauz said nearly one-third of people to whom the term “migration background” is applied were born in Germany. The term, she said, gives the impression “that they would never belong here 100%, that immigration was their defining characteristic.”

Immigration and integration: Germany debates terminology | Germany| News and in-depth reporting from Berlin and beyond | DW | 21.01.2021

Jamie Dimon, the billionaire boss of JP Morgan was paid $31.5m in 2020, the bank announced.

JP Morgan paid Dimon a salary of $1.5m, a $5m cash bonus and $25m of restricted stock tied to performance. Dimon has a fortune at $1.7bn.

 He warned that the excesses of capitalism are threatening the foundation of society. In 2019 he told CBS’s 60 Minutes that income inequality is a “huge problem” but dodged questions about his own salary.

He later stated that “A big chunk of [people] have been left behind. Forty per cent of Americans make less than $15 an hour. Forty percent of Americans can’t afford a $400 bill, whether it’s medical or fixing their car. Fifteen per cent of Americans make minimum wages, 70,000 die from opioids [annually].”

We are not surprised that he asserted that socialism was not the answer, saying it produces “stagnation, corruption and often worse”. What else would you expect from a billionaire.

JP Morgan boss Jamie Dimon is paid $31.5m after decrying income inequality | Jamie Dimon | The Guardian

 In Brasil, coronavirus is spreading and the death toll is mounting — but what most worries the vulnerable communities is how to feed people now that the government has pulled their main emergency aid. For most of last year, they had received a decent government stipend to survive the pandemic, but that all ended with 2020, unleashing a frenzy of favela requests for food. It was April when Congress first passed a bill that established the monthly $600 real ($112) stipend — a little over half the country’s minimum wage — pledging to tide people over for three months during the pandemic. By July, almost half of the 210 million people who call Brazil home lived with someone who was receiving the aid, government data shows.

Ivone Rocha is cofounder of Semeando Amor (Sowing Love), a non-profit that distributes basic staples to some of the very poorest people in Rio das Pedras, one of Rio de Janeiro’s many favelas.

“People here have no jobs,” Rocha told Thomson Reuters Foundation by phone. “Now the aid has ended. My God, what will happen?”

Even before COVID-19, some 13 million Brazilians were living in extreme poverty and a full quarter of the population was classified as below the World Bank’s poverty line, according to government data. The end of the aid programme will disproportionately hit the poor north and northeast of the country, according to a study by Tendencias Consultoria, a consultancy focused on the economy. Those in favelas in Indigenous communities and in “quilombos” — settlements set up by runaway slaves where Black Brazilians live by old traditions — may suffer still more, campaigners said.

Milene Maia, an advisor for Instituto Socioambiental, a non-profit that helps Indigenous and quilombola communities, explained, “What they told us is that they either starve to death or die of COVID,” she said.

Brazil’s most vulnerable communities face COVID food crisis | Coronavirus pandemic News | Al Jazeera