Covid-19 and Child Deaths


The unprecedented global social and economic crisis triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic poses grave risks to the nutritional status and survival of young children in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Of particular concern is an expected increase in child malnutrition, including wasting, due to steep declines in household incomes, changes in the availability and affordability of nutritious foods, and interruptions to health, nutrition, and social protection services. The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to increase the risk of all forms of malnutrition. The wasting-focused estimates we present here are likely to be conservative, given that the duration of this crisis is unknown, and its full impacts on food, health, and social protection systems are yet to be realised. The disruption of other health services during lockdowns will further compromise maternal and child health and mortality, and with the deepening of economic and food systems crises, other forms of malnutrition, including child stunting, micronutrient malnutrition, and maternal nutrition, are expected to increase. The estimated increase in child wasting is only the tip of the iceberg.

One in ten deaths among children younger than 5 years in LMICs is attributable to severe wasting because wasted children are at increased risk of mortality from infectious diseases. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, an estimated 47 million children younger than 5 years were moderately or severely wasted, most living in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia.

The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to continue to exacerbate all forms of malnutrition. Estimates from the International Food Policy Research Institute suggest that because of the pandemic an additional 140 million people will be thrown into living in extreme poverty on less than US$1·90 per day in 2020. According to the World Food Programme, the number of people in LMICs facing acute food insecurity will nearly double to 265 million by the end of 2020. Sharp declines are expected in access to child health and nutrition services, similar to those seen during the 2014–16 outbreak of Ebola virus disease in sub-Saharan Africa. Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, UNICEF estimated a 30% overall reduction in essential nutrition services coverage, reaching 75–100% in lockdown contexts, including in fragile countries where there are humanitarian crises.

Based on the microeconomic model projections which indicate that decreases in GNI per capita are associated with large increases in child wasting new analyses applied to 118 LMICs, suggest there could be a 14·3% increase in the prevalence of moderate or severe wasting among children younger than 5 years due to COVID-19-related predicted country-specific losses in GNI per capita. We estimate this would translate to an additional estimated 6·7 million children with wasting in 2020 compared with projections for 2020 without COVID-19; an estimated 57·6% of these children are in south Asia and an estimated 21·8% in sub-Saharan Africa. 
The projected increase in wasting in each country is combined with a projected year average of 25% reduction in coverage of nutrition and health services, we estimate there would be 128,605 (ranging from 111,193 to 178,510 for best and worst case scenarios) additional deaths in children younger than 5 years during 2020, with an estimated 52% of these deaths in sub-Saharan Africa.

Choose life, not death – Choose love, not hate.

Contrary to all the media hype and the left-wing progressive’s delusions there is little to celebrate if Biden wins the election.

Citing the analysis of William Hartung and Many Smithberger, the Milwaukee Independent described that: “As of 2019, the annual Pentagon base budget, plus war budget, plus nuclear weapons in the Department of Energy, plus military spending by the Department of Homeland Security, plus interest on deficit military spending, and other military spending totaled $1.25 trillion . . .”


This is untouchable money—not just to Trump but also to Biden.


 Three separate bills, introduced by progressive Democrats, to reduce military spending and/or undo the militarization of police departments have been defeated.
These included amendments in both the Senate and the House to the National Defense Authorization Act, diverting 10 percent of the Department of Defense budget to health care, education and jobs; as well as a Senate proposal to end the 1033 Program, which allows the Pentagon to transfer military gear to the police.


 The amendment’s defeat in the House was especially an outrage because the Democratic Party hold a majority in the House and could have passed it. Militarism, and the bloated defense budget are neve addressed with any serious political pragmatism by the Democratic Party.


Today is the day that we begin the process of rising above a primitive fearbased capitalist economic system that not only does not serve us, but is preventing us from investing in your well-being and the happy future of your children and grandchildren


Adapted from here

Tough Times – Tough Truths



 Q:  Trump and Biden are together in a plane crash, who survives?
A: We all do and so does the planet

Where politics are concerned a lot of our fellow-workers have stopped listening. They no longer believe any more in what politicians say or do. That’s quite understandable after all the times they’ve been fooled and duped by phony campaign promises and let down by reforms guaranteed as sure cures for steadily worsening social problems.

Some though haven’t totally turned their backs on politics yet. They’re watching the present Presidential campaign. They still believe that hearing and weighing up what the two candidates propose can enable them to elect who will get this country’s problems solved. The “believers” still hope to find the “right” person to put America’s house in order. The “non-believers” have come to doubt that such people exist.

Socialists offer a third view — a view which, besides agreeing that no “right” politician is available, goes further by denying that our country’s desperate problems have been caused by “wrong” leader chosen to run government in the past. Instead of blaming political officeholders, this view claims that the real cause of our social problems lies partly in the form of government we have and mainly in the capitalist system on which the government rests. It therefore also claims that the ballot should be used to fundamentally change both.

“Lesser evilism,” of course, suits the capitalist class just fine. It means that the exploited basically accept their miserable existence to perhaps a lesser degree. The rulers are happy that the working class doesn’t yet see the possibility of a new socialist society, where every single human being would be guaranteed a decent life. Electoral activity is an essential spur to class struggle, a valuable part of the arsenal of resistance in a war where every means necessary must be employed. The Democratic Party is dominant not because it is controlled by the capitalists. Its strength comes from the support received from a combination of working class forces – the unions, the unemployed, the great majority of black people. Without the African-American vote, the Democrats will have great difficulties in winning national elections and control of the White House.

Candidates for political office are but manifestations of class interests. Politicians are managerial strata who defend the status quo and are acting as its enforcers. Few doubt that Joe Biden is the ruling class/Wall Street candidate who has in the past dutifully served the capitalist class and who in the future will continue his service to the oligarchs and the plutocrats.Biden has supported every key ruling-class policy during his political career in the service of capitalist America. He is and has always been compliant to the ruling-class. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, the darlings of the liberal apologists for capitalism ceased their criticism of Biden as Wall Street’s nominee.

Trump is not a new phenomenon within the American society. The history of American politics is littered with demagogue populism. Some commentators would like that Trump is depicted as an aberration, even a fascist. There is little if any difference either between Biden and Trump.
  
Trump is a “greater evil” only by overlooking American history for a few centuries. Trump does what Biden did. The question becomes to whom is then the ‘greater or ‘lesser’ evil’? Let’s be absolutely clear, should Trump be re-elected, he can be expected to continue to be the same servile tool of the American capitalists who decide how best to advance their interests.

Biden presents himself as the liberal contestant for the presidency, nevertheless, he is still  beholden to the Wall Street tycoons. They haven’t contributed millions of dollars to his campaign for nothing in return. Republican and Democrats is just the same dog wearing different collars, they are interchangeable. Joe Biden would be the ideal Republican Party candidate and indeed many in the GOP such as the Lincoln Project say so. By criticizing Biden we are in no way expressing sympathy for Trump who made all his wealth from the sweat of the working class. He gained popularity based on the false dreams of millions of workers.

The main problem of the US is not to defeat Donald Trump, the main essential problem is capitalism. Whoever wins the presidential election will become the captain of the battleship and the representative of the capitalist economy.

As socialists, we are opposed to choosing between politicians who are pledged to administrate the affairs of the capitalist system. Why? Because no form of capitalism is worth voting for. Neither Trump nor Biden has any intention of making fundamental changes to society to benefit workers, nor could they without a mandate to do so from the American working class. Both seek to maintain a society that causes war, global warming, racism, societal breakdown, job insecurity, and poverty. Biden may do a little bit better than Trump, but as socialists, we don’t care about a little bit better, but a whole lot better, which won’t happen until a fundamental change is made in society. A change that will eliminate the above social evils – a change called socialism.

The 15$ Minimum Wage

The $15 minimum wage is supported by Biden.
A 2019 report by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimated increasing the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour would lift 1.3 million Americans out of poverty, a small fraction of the roughly 38 million people living in poverty in 2018.
Moreover, the report estimated a $15 minimum wage would cost 1.3 million people their jobs because they would be priced out of the market.
Altogether, some 17 million people might see higher pay, the office said, but not enough to raise most who are below the poverty line above it.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics report on the working poor in 2018, 3.7 million people who usually worked full-time were below the poverty level. That finding suggests that a $15 federal minimum would not take all full-time workers out of poverty. And, of course, it would still leave millions of part-time workers and the unemployed in poverty.

Hunger in Africa

Our companion blog Socialist Banner which concentrates on Africa recently had a post that highlighted a report that was highly critical of AGRA (Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa) and its development approach which is well worth a read.



The Common Dreams website also has an article criticising AGRA. 



This too is is worth quoting from. 



“It’s been nearly fifty years since Frances Moore Lappé reminded us in her seminal work, “Diet for a Small Planet,” that hunger is not caused by a scarcity of food, it is caused by a scarcity of power. Economist Amartya Sen won a Nobel Prize more than twenty years ago for showing that famine was rarely caused by a lack of food…”



 “…The report, “False Promises: The Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa,” which showed AGRA to be a billion-dollar initiative that is reducing crop diversity in the name of calorie production. But that production is not reducing hunger. It has contributed to a 31% increase in the number of undernourished people in its 13 target countries. And Rwanda, oft-cited as an AGRA success story during Kalibata’s term as agriculture minister, showed a 41% increase in the number of undernourished people since AGRA began in 2006, according to the latest U.N. figures….”



“…maize may have lifted Rwanda’s per capita calorie production above FAO minimums, but it sure didn’t solve hunger, which, as always, is still a problem of distribution and consumption. According to new FAO data released July 13, the number of undernourished Rwandans has increased 41% since 2006. The share of Rwandans living in extreme poverty has barely declined, from 63% to 60%….”



“…In its 13 focus countries, AGRA has spent one billion dollars, supplemented by up to one billion dollars per year in African government subsidies for its Green Revolution seeds and fertilizers. Yet in 12 years AGRA shows tepid productivity growth, even for maize, its most favored crop. Production of millet has declined 24% with falling yields. We calculated that for a basket of staple crops, yields had grown just 18% over 12 years, nothing resembling AGRA’s promised doubling of productivity by 2020. Meanwhile, the number of undernourished people in AGRA countries rose 31%…”





UK Pay Rises Fall

 British private-sector employers have slashed their annual pay awards to staff, offering the lowest increase in 10 years.



Human resources data provider XpertHR said pay deals in the three months to July offered a median annual pay rise of 0.5%, down from 2.2% in the previous three readings. 



Pay freezes accounted for more than four in 10 settlements.



Looking at 2020 so far, and including the public sector, the median basic pay settlement was worth 2.2%, down from 2.5% over the year to December 2019.



XpertHR pay and benefits editor Sheila Attwood said. “We also expect many of the pay reviews currently on hold to ultimately result in a pay freeze for staff, making 2020 the worst year for pay awards since 2009.”



https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-pay/uk-employers-give-lowest-pay-rises-in-a-decade-xperthr-says-idUKKCN25F2UQ

Reproductive Healthcare and the Pandemic

In its report, titled Resilience, Adaptation, and Action, (pdf) Marie Stopes International (MSI),the international reproductive rights charity,  warned on Wednesday that it expects 1.5 million women around the world to have unsafe abortions as a result of the coronavirus pandemic’s likely impact on access to reproductive healthcare. The report offers “evidence of the devastating disruption” around the world to reproductive healthcare for women. Around the world, MSI expects 900,000 additional unintended pregnancies and 3,100 additional maternal deaths as a result of the pandemic.



 Between January and June 2020, its programs have served 1.9 million fewer women than usual. The London-based organization provides contraceptive care, abortion care, and other sexual and reproductive healthcare services to women in 37 countries around the world.  



MSI found that restricted movement due to national lockdowns, disruptions in supply chains, the overwhelming of healthcare systems by the pandemic, and a lack of information about reproductive services has led women around the world to forgo the care they need.



In India, the strict nationwide lockdown was put in place so abruptly to curb the spread of Covid-19 that 1.3 million fewer women were served by MSI’s programs than expected in the first half of the year. 
“Due to this drop in services, it is estimated that there will be an additional one million unsafe abortions, an additional 650,000 unintended pregnancies, and 2,600 maternal deaths, due to lack of access to MSI’s India services alone,” the report reads. 


“Women’s needs do not suddenly stop or diminish during an emergency—they become greater. And as a doctor I have seen only too often the drastic action that women and girls take when they are unable to access contraception and safe abortion,” a physician identified as Dr. Rashmi, who works at one of MSI’s two programs in India, said in the report. “This pandemic has strained healthcare services all over the world, but sexual and reproductive healthcare was already so underprioritized that once again women are bearing the brunt of this global calamity.”


Nearly a third of women in India and 26% of women in South Africa lost access to contraceptive care, as fear of Covid-19 infection kept them from accessing the service. A third of women in India also reported that they faced a wait time of one to two weeks when making an appointment for an abortion. 


MSI noted that its report provides only “a snapshot of the current crisis” and that “in many countries the worst effects of Covid-19 are yet to come.”

It’s Going to Take Everyone

The United States has the largest arable landmass of any country in the world and is the 177th-most densely populated. The birth rate has been below the rate needed to sustain the population since 1971 and has just hit an all-time low. In a world of more fluid borders, too, where workers were empowered to leave countries and regions where conditions were poor, it would be easier to organize around improving global labor standards. Institutions of the labor left, such as the Industrial Workers of the World, have a long history of supporting free migration on ideological grounds, as a natural component of global worker solidarity and empowerment. 


Immigration is not a problem: The hoarding of resources by the rich and greedy, in the U.S. and around the world, is the problem. We should seek to abolish the components of a system that is designed to police and punish the poor and working class, and focus our energies on our real enemy – the capitalist class and their political cronies. 


We have not forgotten what Biden said during remarks at the Brookings Institute . “I don’t think 500 billionaires are the reason we’re in trouble. The folks at the top aren’t bad guys.” The wealthiest people in our society don’t appear to be improving any lives but their own, and they don’t seem to have special qualities or skills that explain why they’re being rewarded so much more extravagantly than the rest of us. Deep down we all know this system is not working. However, what are we asked to choose between? One side is predominantly drawn to promise of an imaginary past, the other offering a re-modelled version of the future but essentially based on today’s structures. Capitalism is incapable of meaningful reform. Even when gains for the masses are wrought, they’ll be reversed if need be in short order.

 The World Socialist Party of the United States (WSPUS) certainly have their work cut out in trying to explain what is meant by socialism. After decades of deliberate and purposeful distortion, American politicians continue to maliciously misinterpret what socialism is.




Logos are omnipresent in our society today, mainly to invite support and loyalty to an organization. Thus sports teams, nongovernmental organizations and especially businesses, large and small, use logos constantly in the hope of establishing product identification in the consumer’s mind. All are competing for your attention. So what about our logo?

The “One World, One People” globe logo of the WSPUS embodies many of our beliefs and seeks to put our case before you. “One World” means that we see the world as one co-operative entity rather than the world that is divided into competing countries and corporations. The World Socialist Party see the world without boundaries, where co-operation and mutual aid will take place between autonomous and largely self-sufficient regions. As there will be no money or trade, there will be nothing to go to war for. If one region is deficient in one resource, for example, it need only request the amount needed from an area that can supply it.

By contrast, the various rivalries in the present world have arbitrary boundaries drawn on a map by vying capitalists to mark their control of a particular region. They continually seek to expand and extend their influence to include other regions and trade routes. Protecting these spheres of influence inevitably leads to conflict, a constant state in capitalism.

“One World” would mean a world administration, elected democratically from all the various parts of the world to solve global problems, equipped with the knowledge and tools to do the job properly. The petty squabbles over usual monetary and budgetary constraints responsible for today’s tragic lack of action on urgent pressing problems as hunger, poverty, homelessness, and environmental degradation would not exist. In socialism, if something needs doing to be done, it will be done. We need only the will to do so.

The “One People” part of our logo refers to the fact that we are all members of one race  the human race  and we share the same planet. We all have similar needs—food and water, housing, health, education, etc. The capitalist production and distribution of wealth means that all must compete to grab as much for themselves as possible, to the detriment of others who become the losers in the system.  Socialists hold that the planet’s resources if managed properly, can provide much more than the essential needs for a full and productive life for everyone. Further, after abolishing the capitalist economic and class system, there will no longer exist hierarchies of social privilege or class divisions.

Will we, then, be all the same? Of course not! There will still be different cultures, languages, food, literature, and arts that will continue to flourish and enrich the lives of all. They’ll just be able to develop better without the constant barrage of the McDonald Golden Arches and KFC Colonel Sanders logos we are subjected to today.

Availing ourselves of these cultural riches will benefit all. 
This is what socialism can and will achieve. When it will happen is up to you. The capitalist system is a time-bomb. Mankind is in a race with catastrophe. The threat is growing ever closer. Let us choose freedom, socialism, and survival while we can. 



Dying because they are desperate

In the English Channel a teenager from Sudan was washed ashore drowned after his failed attempt to get to Britain, using a blow-up rubber dinghy and shovels for oars. The UK government has been criticised by campaigners and opposition politicians for its alleged lack of compassion and competence in tackling the issue, ignoring calls from humanitarian experts to bolster safe and legal routes to the UK for those seeking asylum. Instead, ministers have sought to bring in the military to make the route “unviable”



Pierre-Henri Dumont, a local councillor and also an MP for the Calais region asked, “How many more tragedies must there be for the British to find an ounce of humanity. The impossibility of lodging an asylum request in Great Britain without being physically there is leading to these tragedies. British negligence does not exonerate the French government from its own responsibility.”





Clare Moseley, of Care4Calais, condemned the failure of the government to provide safe and legal routes for refugees to reach the UK from northern France.
“Things need to change. We need a way for people’s asylum claims to be fairly heard without them having to risk their lives,” she said.

Laura Padoan, spokesperson for UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency, said: “We’ve been warning that the priority needs to be saving lives – this shouldn’t have happened. There needs to be international cooperation on providing safe legal routes to ensure than more people don’t drown trying to seek sanctuary in the UK.”



Beth Gardiner-Smith, chief executive of Safe Passage, pointed out, “This morning’s tragic news is the direct consequence of a lack of safe alternatives for those seeking sanctuary. The French and UK governments have been quick to blame people smugglers but fail to recognise that the best way to destroy their business model is to provide safe and legal routes for refugees and a clear pathway to asylum. Ministers in the UK and France need to get a grip and make it their personal priority to prevent any more needless loss of life.”



In the Mediterranean 45 migrants and refugees, including five children, were drowned off the coast of Libya. 37 survivors were rescued by local fishermen.



The survivors of Wednesday’s shipwreck, who were mainly from Senegal, Mali, Chad and Ghana, were detained after they disembarked in Libya. Migrants are treated appallingly in Libya, especially if they fall into the hands of militiamen and traffickers, who abuse them and try to extort money from them.





With Libyan state vessels taking responsibility for rescues in the absence of a European Union program, more than 7,000 people have been returned to Libya this year, the statement said.
The IOM and UNHCR say Libya should not be classified as a safe port for migrants and that they should not have to disembark there, wanting an alternative scheme to be created to take people rescued or intercepted at sea to safe ports.

More than 300 people are known to have died trying to cross the sea from Libya to Europe this year, with the actual figure believed to be much higher.

Both the UNHCR and International Organization for Migration (IOM) have called for search and rescue efforts for migrants to be stepped up. They said that without a dedicated search and rescue operation mechanism, more lives would be lost in the Mediterranean.

Defending the Dynasty’s Fortune

The richest dozen billionaires now have a combined wealth of over $1 trillion.  And since March 18, the beginning of the pandemic lock down, the collective wealth of the U.S. billionaire class has increased over $700 billion.


The pandemic, however, has also provided cover for tax avoidance.  The wealth planners for the richest 0.1 percent have accelerated the tools they created over the last two decades to place trillions outside the reach of the estate and gift tax.


Institute for Policy Studies Associate Fellow Bob Lord has written a policy brief, “Covid-19, A Perfect Storm for Estate Tax Avoidance,” provides a readable overview to the deployment of two planning devices: the Intentionally Defective Grantor Trust, or IDGT, and the Granter Retained Annuity Trust, or GRAT.  Lord explains their workings in his policy brief.


Wealthy families use these planning tools to place billions in wealth into “dynasty trusts” and reduce or eliminate their estate and gift tax obligations.    According to Lord, it is too late to capture these funds. 


The Intentionally Defective Grantor Trust (IDGT)


Here’s an example of how the strategy would have been employed in 2012: Late in 2012, John and Mary Rich, then in their mid-40s, make a $10 million gift to an IDGT set up to benefit their descendants; first, their children, then, after their children’s death, their grandchildren, and so on. John and Mary also place over $500 million of investment assets in a family limited partnership. The IDGT than purchases a limited partnership interest from John and Mary. The partnership interest represents $117 million of investment assets but, because of the manner in which John and Mary’s advisers have structured the partnership, is valued for estate and gift tax purposes at only $100 million. That fifteen percent valuation discount is on the conservative side in the tax avoidance industry. Many planners recommend discounts of 30% or more. 


The IDGT pays John and Mary $10 million in cash (the gift they made to it a short time earlier) and a $90 million promissory note, which bears a one percent interest rate. The IDGT must pay interest on the note yearly at this one percent rate. The IDGT will have to repay the principal by the end of nine years, but it could refinance at that time if necessary. John and Mary’s tax 2 planner advised them that in order for this strategy to withstand IRS scrutiny, the IDGT should have at least 10% equity in its investment. 


Assume the assets initially generate $2.4 million of dividend income per year and that income increases over time as the assets appreciate and unused income is reinvested. That income flows to the IDGT, but is taxable, under the convoluted rules of intentionally defective grantor trusts, to John and Mary. The IDGT uses $1 million per year from this income to pay its yearly interest obligation. John and Mary then use the $1 million payment to pay the tax on the income from the assets and fund their living expenses. To sum up, John and Mary’s children, the beneficiaries of the IDGT, are able to purchase assets at a substantial discount and realize a rate of return vastly exceeding the rate of interest paid on the amount borrowed to purchase them, while John and Mary continue to pay the tax liability attributable to the income on the assets.


 Fast forward to June 2020. John and Mary now are in their early 50s. Their net worth now stands at $1.5 billion. With the runup in the stock market, the discounted value of the IDGT’s partnership interest has appreciated to $240 million, representing $280.8 million of partnership assets. John and Mary now sell an additional partnership interest to the IDGT for $1.26 billion, along with the IDGT’s $90 million promissory note, for a total sale of $1.35 billion. Because the IDGT now has $150 billion in equity, it may pay the entire purchase price with a new promissory note for $1.35 billion. This note bears interest at a 1.01 percent annual rate and has a term of 30 years.


 Although the IDGT only is required to pay the interest on the note, it uses the dividend yield attributable to its share of the partnerships assets to make note payments each year. Now, make some modest assumptions about the dividend yield paid to the IDGT, the income tax payable by John and Mary on that dividend yield, the appreciation in the value of the partnership’s assets, and John and Mary’s living expenses, and assume that the partnership distributes the IDGT’s share of the assets to it after 30 years, which the IDGT then liquidates. Here’s where things will stand after 30 years, when John and Mary are in the early 80s: The IDGT will have paid the promissory note in its entirety. The IDGT will hold over $4.2 billion of cash. The note payments John and Mary receive will allow them to fund their living expenses, the annual income tax on the dividend income, and the tax on all gains from the sale of investment assets by the IDGT. That’s $4.2 billion passed in trust to John and Mary’s children with an estate tax cost of zero. 


The IDGT’s $4.2 billion value undoubtedly will grow during the Rich children’s remaining lifetimes. When they die, their children will become the beneficiaries of the IDGT, with no estate tax paid. And a generation later, John and Mary’s great-grandchildren will become the beneficiaries of the IDGT, which by then could have a value of over $100 billion


The Grantor Retained Annuity Trust (GRAT)


The IDGT typically involves the use of some amount of a wealthy person’s exemption from estate and gift tax. 


The second strategy, the Grantor Retained Annuity Trust, works even for those who have entirely consumed their exemption from estate and gift tax. And the current environment turbocharges the obscene estate tax avoidance achieved through the GRAT as much as, perhaps more than, it does the IDGT. 


The technical aspects of GRATs may be difficult to grasp. The estate tax avoidance planning strategy associated with GRATs, however, is fairly simple. GRATs are used by the ultra-rich to sell investment assets, repeatedly, to trusts for the benefit of their descendants, with a slight twist: If the assets appreciate substantially in value, the trust pays the purchase price. Otherwise, the sale is undone, and the assets revert back to the ultra-rich seller. Now, think how rich you might become if you could see how a stock performed before paying for it. And think of how bad your investment results would be if every time you sold a stock its value increased, and every time you held a stock it lost value. 


That’s the essence of estate and gift tax avoidance with GRATs. The senior generation gradually loses wealth over time, while the junior generations steadily gain wealth. The net-net is a transfer of enormous wealth from one generation to the next that is not considered a taxable gift. Avoiding estate tax through the use of GRATs is like spearfishing in a bucket even in ordinary times. If a billionaire establishes enough GRATs, sooner or later she’ll have transferred billions in wealth to her children free of gift and estate tax.


 Still, some times are better than others for avoiding massive amounts of estate and gift tax with GRATs. Two factors drive the efficiency of GRAT estate tax avoidance: interest rates and investment market volatility. When Mary Rich “sells” assets to a GRAT, she does so by exchanging the assets for a two-year annuity — two annual payments, that is — payable on the first and second anniversaries of the GRAT formation. Those annuity payments must include an IRS-determined amount of interest, which is based on then-prevailing interest rates. 


So, the lower interest rates are, the less Mary must be paid for her assets. The interest Mary must charge is the hurdle, in terms of performance, that the GRAT must clear to move wealth to her descendants. If the GRAT fails to clear that hurdle, all its assets will return to Mary. Mary typically would not create just one or two GRATs. Instead, she might create a GRAT every month, or every week, or even multiple GRATs every week. If the financial markets are volatile, Mary is more likely to time some of her sales shortly before the assets she sells to the GRAT 4 jump sharply in value. At that point, the GRAT may sell the appreciated assets, and lock in a gain. Yes, there will be other sales where volatility causes an immediate drop after Mary sells to a GRAT. But Mary is not concerned about those sales. She can undo them. Which makes the current pandemic the perfect storm for estate tax avoidance through GRATs. Interest rates are at all-time lows, and the financial markets are as volatile as they’ve been in decades. The required interest rate on sales to GRAT’s has been below one percent per year since May. It now stands at 0.4% per year. At the same time, the stock market has been on a roller coaster ride. In the second quarter of 2020, the major stock indices rose over 17%. The Nasdaq increased over 30% in those three months. The price of Amazon stock has nearly doubled since March. The bottom line: The best time ever for avoiding estate and gift tax through GRAT planning is now. And America’s billionaires and wannabe billionaires are seizing on the opportunity. Every time the stock market swings in one direction and then in the other, billions of dollars of wealth move beyond the reach of the estate and gift tax system. Under current federal and state law, it will remain beyond reach for the next century or so. 


The Mars family may have its wealth protected through the creation of dynasty trusts. Although the family has not divulged any details of its estate planning, the reported wealth of Mars family members, according to Bloomberg and Forbes, suggests this is the case, for two reasons. First, with the passing of Forrest Mars, Sr., in 1999 and Forrest Mars, Jr., in 2016, the family’s total reported wealth did not decrease, as it logically would if estate tax were paid. Second, the reported wealth of family members in the same generation tends to be exactly equal, suggesting that their wealth is held in a trust separated into equal shares. 


The state of South Dakota has built a dynasty trust industry with an estimated $350 billion sheltered from estate and other forms of taxation, up from $57 billion a decade ago.