United Nations chief Antonio Guterres has warned that a failure to cut global emissions is setting the world on a “catastrophic” path to 2.7 degrees Celsius heating. That would unleash far more devastating effects than those already battering countries around the world, from fatal floods to wildfires and storms.

“Overall greenhouse gas emission numbers are moving in the wrong direction,” UN climate chief Patricia Espinosa said. “It’s not enough, what we have on the table.”

New UN analysis said that under countries’ current pledges, global emissions would be 16 percent higher in 2030 than they were in 2010 – far off the 45 percent reduction by 2030 that scientists say is needed to stave off disastrous climate change.

Nations responsible for about half the world’s emissions have yet to set tougher emissions-cutting targets this year. China, India and Saudi Arabia are among them. Brazil and Mexico submitted updated pledges that analysts said would cause higher emissions than those countries’ previous targets.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said on Friday it was likely that wealthy countries missed a goal to contribute $100bn in 2020 to help developing nations cope with climate change.

World on ‘catastrophic’ path to 2.7C warming, UN chief warns | Climate News | Al Jazeera

 The World Socialist Movement (WSM) has always argued that when it comes to socialism solving the climate crises, allowances must be made to uplift the poor (including those inside the so-called affluent countries) and provide them with a decent living standard. It may mean economic growth when our long-term aim is still to decrease production levels albeit we expect it to be compensated with reductions in socially unnecessary and ecological wasteful manufacturing and services such as military and the buying and selling sectors. For the undeveloped and developing countries, economic growth is urgent and crucial for their populations’ well-being.

New research, published in Environmental Research Letters, studied deprivation and calculated the energy required to provide “decent living standards” (DLS) to all – including to build the infrastructure to reach those that still lack them. Their conclusion is that the increase in energy provision required for poverty eradication does not, in itself, pose a threat to mitigating climate change on a global scale.

“The good news from recent research is that essential energy needs to meet everyone’s basic needs, framed as “decent living standards” (DLS), could constitute a small share of projected energy growth…”

On a global scale, it would require roughly a quarter of projected world energy demand by mid-century. In order to provide DLS for all by 2040, energy provisioning for basic needs in some poor countries would at least have to double by 2030 and triple by 2040, even if all energy growth were directed solely towards poverty eradication efforts.  The construction of new buildings and transport infrastructure are the biggest factors in providing new services. 

To fill the gaps in basic provision would require an extra 68 exajoules (EJ) of energy on a global basis, or about another 5 gigajoules (GJ) per person on average. These figures can be compared with the current total global energy demand of more than 400EJ and the average per person of about 55GJ. The construction of new buildings and transport infrastructure are the biggest factors in providing new services. This construction energy, at about 12EJ per year, is, however, much smaller than the annual needs to operate services on an ongoing basis.

The research shows that current global energy consumption is already, in principle, sufficient to provide everyone with a decent life. But this will happen only if there is a stronger focus on providing the energy to serve basic needs rather than growing affluence.

The authors explain, “Our research shows that current global energy consumption is already, in principle, sufficient to provide everyone with a decent life. But this will happen only if there is a stronger focus on providing the energy to serve basic needs rather than growing affluence.

For instance, while global energy supply under pathways that limit global temperature increase to 1.5C is more than enough to provide for basic needs, as well as some affluence, projected DLS [decent living standards]energy needs for some regions and countries can go up to or exceed half of the total. (Faster energy efficiency improvements would reduce this ratio.)

Together, this means that while eradicating multidimensional poverty is compatible with ambitious climate targets, it does likely require a shift towards more equitable energy, climate and development policies, both within and between countries.”

Decent Living Standards: Material Prerequisites for Human Wellbeing | SpringerLink

Decent living gaps and energy needs around the world – IOPscience

 UN chief Antonio Guterres said, “I believe that we are at risk of not having a success in COP26.” 

It is at risk of failure due to mistrust between developed and developing countries and a lack of ambitious goals among some emerging economies.

Guterres explained, “There is still a level of mistrust, between north and south, developed and developing countries, that needs to be overcome. We are on the verge of the abyss and when you are on the verge of the abyss, you need to be very careful about what the next step is. And the next step is COP26 in Glasgow.”

There is now a 40 percent chance that average global temperature in one of the next five years will be at least 1.5C (2.7F) warmer than pre-industrial levels.

On Monday, Guterres and Boris Johnson will host a meeting of world leaders on the sidelines of the annual high-level week of the UN General Assembly in a bid to build the chances of success at the climate conference.

“We need the developed countries to do more, namely in relation to the support to developing countries. And we need some emerging economies to go an extra mile and be more ambitious in the reduction of air emissions,” Guterres said and he continued, “Until now, I have not seen enough commitment of developed countries to support developing countries … and to give a meaningful share of that support to the needs of adaptation,” said Guterres.

Glasgow climate summit at risk of failure, UN chief warns | Climate Change News | Al Jazeera

 Politicians and industrialists have been keen to adopt environment-friendly language in their media statements with lots of promises and pledges that their governments and corporations intend to change to solve the climate change crisis. 

But the new analysis, by Climate Action Tracker, finds almost every country is falling woefully short of their policies to meet what they agreed to in the 2015 Paris climate accord. Every one of the world’s leading economies, including all the countries that make up the G20, is failing to meet commitments made in the landmark Paris agreement in order to stave off climate catastrophe. This means the world is still on course towards calamitous climate impacts.

Climate pledges made by Russia, Iran and Saudi Arabia are “critically insufficient.

Australia, Brazil, Canada, China and India are among those deemed “highly insufficient”.

The US, the European Union and Japan are ranked as “insufficient”.

The UK  is “almost sufficient”.

Combined, all these countries make up 80% of global emissions.

Only The Gambia has made commitments in line with the 1.5C Paris goal.

Even countries with strong climate targets are not on track to meet them, while international finance for poorer countries to help cope with the climate crisis is falling short. If current practices continue, the world is on track for nearly 3C in warming.

“An increasing number of people around the world are suffering from ever more severe and frequent impacts of climate change, yet government action continues to lag behind what is needed,” said Bill Hare, chief executive of Climate Analytics, a partner in the new study. “While many governments have committed to net zero, without near-term action achieving net zero is virtually impossible.”

Coal, the most polluting fossil fuel, is still being developed on a large scale by India and China, the report found, while gas infrastructure is being expanded by Australia and the EU.

Jennifer Rokala, executive director for the Center for Western Priorities conservation group, pointed out, “Vision is nothing without action.”

Governments falling woefully short of Paris climate pledges, study finds | Climate change | The Guardian

Almost daily we have reports from experts that detail the damage being done to the planet by the climate crises and the destruction of our environment. Yet governments procrastinate. They postpone policies rather than act immediately. Governments do what capitalism wishes. The first concern of the capitalists is for profit, and what remains very profitable at the present time will not be eliminated. The capitalist system is built upon the accumulation of capital, which means a need for growth. Contracting the market when there is still scope for returns to shareholders will not be on any board of directors business agenda.  There can be no answer to the various climate crises while production-for-profit persists. What is required is a cooperative commonwealth based upon human needs. The fact that we are at the edge of an abyss will not influence investors. They will reluctantly accept a number of reforms if their expectation of financial gains is not threatened. They will happily sell shares in the declining value of fossil fuels and buy into green industries. There is nothing that capitalism cannot fix with money is the mistaken belief held by so many of the ruling class.

 “If market solutions naturally greened the world, we wouldn’t be where we are. Clearly, there’s been a market failure.”

Kwasi Kwarteng, the business secretary

 UK government, Olivier De Schutter, the UN-appointed rapporteur on extreme poverty, said, “It’s unconscionable at this point in time to remove this benefit,” he said, adding the decision to cut universal credit – which was boosted last year to help people get through the pandemic – was based on a “very ill-informed understanding” of its impact on claimants.

Cutting universal credit by £20 a week breaches international human rights law and is likely to trigger an explosion of poverty, the United Nations’ poverty envoy said.

“For these people, £20 a week makes a huge difference, and could be the difference between falling into extreme poverty or remaining just above that poverty line … If the question is one of fiscal consolidation to maintain the public deficit within acceptable levels then you should raise revenues, not cut down on welfare at the expense of people in poverty.”

There was plentiful evidence showing millions of people would struggle to afford food and pay essential bills as a result.

‘Unconscionable’ universal credit cut breaks human rights law, says UN envoy | Universal credit | The Guardian

COVID-19 pandemic has not slowed the pace of climate change. Virus-related economic slowdown and lockdowns caused only a temporary downturn in CO2 emissions last year, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said. 

“There was some thinking that the COVID lockdowns would have had a positive impact on the atmosphere, which is not the case,” WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said.

 The United in Science 2021 report, which gathers the latest scientific data and findings related to climate change, said global fossil-fuel CO2 emissions between January and July in the power and industry sectors were already back to the same level or higher than in the same period in 2019, before the pandemic. 

Although CO2 emissions from road traffic in 2021 have been below the levels before the pandemic outbreak, concentrations of the major greenhouse gases that contribute to global warming continued to increase, according to the report. 

“We are still significantly off-schedule to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement,” UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said. “Unless there are immediate, rapid and large-scale  reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, limiting warming to 1.5C will be impossible, with catastrophic consequences for people and the planet on which we depend.” Guterres said.

UN: Pandemic did not slow advance of climate change | News | DW | 16.09.2021

  U.N. Environment Program (UNEP) released the report (pdf) with the U.N. Development Program (UNDP) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) that warns that the public support mechanisms for agriculture, totaling about $540 billion annually, “are actively steering us away from achieving” the Sustainable Development Goals and the aims of the 2015 Paris agreement. It calls for “repurposing” 87% of this support, or about $470 billion, to meet global environmental and social goals.

Billions of dollars in price incentives and production-related subsidies each year “are inefficient, distort food prices, hurt people’s health, degrade the environment, and are often inequitable, putting big agribusiness ahead of smallholder farmers, a large share of whom are women,” the agencies explained 

“Agricultural policies, while shaping what food is produced, also have impacts well beyond the farm gate,” the report emphasizes, noting the effect on not only nutrition, health, equity, and efficiency but also nature and climate—due to planet-heating emissions; carbon sequestration; soil, freshwater, and forest preservation; and biodiversity loss.

“Repurposing agricultural support to shift our agri-food systems in a greener, more sustainable direction—including by rewarding good practices such as sustainable farming and climate-smart approaches—can improve both productivity and environmental outcomes,” said Achim Steiner, UNDP’s administrator. “It will also boost the livelihoods of the 500 million smallholder farmers worldwide—many of them women—by ensuring a more level playing field.”

Inger Andersen, executive director of  UNEP, said, “By shifting to more nature-positive, equitable, and efficient agricultural support,” Andersen said, “we can improve livelihoods, and at the same time cut emissions, protect and restore ecosystems, and reduce the use of agrochemicals.”

UN Report Calls for ‘Repurposing’ $470 Billion in Agriculture Support to Serve People and Planet | Common Dreams News

Will Big Ag’s lobbyists permit cuts in the generous and lucrative government subsidies provided to industrial farming? 

 In an open letter thousands of academics and scientists from around the world are urging governments to negotiate an international treaty to bring about a rapid and just transition away from coal, oil, and gas—”the main cause of the climate emergency.”

Characterizing the climate crisis as “the greatest threat to human civilization and nature,” the letter notes that “the burning of fossil fuels—coal, oil, and gas—is the greatest contributor to climate change, responsible for almost 80% of carbon dioxide emissions since the industrial revolution.”

The 2,185 experts from 81 countries write: “We, the undersigned, call on governments around the world to adopt and implement a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty, as a matter of urgency, to protect the lives and livelihoods of present and future generations through a global, equitable phase out of fossil fuels in line with the scientific consensus to not exceed 1.5ºC of warming.”

Alluding to nuclear treaties created to reduce the threats posed by atomic weapons, the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative argues that swiftly phasing out fossil fuel production and expediting the transition to cleaner and healthier alternatives requires “unprecedented international cooperation in three main areas—non-proliferation, global disarmament, and a peaceful, just transition.”

“Air pollution caused by fossil fuels was responsible for almost 1 in 5 deaths worldwide in 2018,” says the letter, which emphasizes that while the negative impacts “derived from the extracting, refining, transporting, and burning of fossil fuels… are often borne by vulnerable and marginalized communities,” coal, oil, and gas corporations “concentrat[e] power and wealth into the hands of a select few, bypassing the communities in which extraction occurs.”

“The world’s leading scientists could not be clearer,” said Rebecca Byrnes, deputy director of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative. “Coal, oil, and gas are the primary cause of the climate crisis and are responsible for nearly one in every five deaths worldwide.”

“This is a global emergency,” NASA climate scientist and signatory Peter Kalmus said in a statement. “It requires global coordination to quickly eliminate the immediate cause: deadly fossil fuels.”

 The researchers’ letter calls for the development of a new treaty that establishes “a binding global plan” to:

End new expansion of fossil fuel production in line with the best available science as outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the United Nations Environment Programme;

Phase out existing production of fossil fuels in a manner that is fair and equitable, taking into account the respective dependency of countries on fossil fuels, and their capacity to transition; and

Invest in a transformational plan to ensure 100% access to renewable energy globally, support fossil fuel-dependent economies to diversify away from fossil fuels, and enable people and communities across the globe to flourish through a global just transition.