Author: ajohnstone

It’s getting hotter

The past decade was the hottest on record, the UN

said,  warning the higher temperatures were expected to fuel numerous extreme weather events in 2020 and beyond.  WMO said average global temperatures during both the past five-year (2015-2019) and 10-year (2010-2019) periods were the highest ever recorded.





“Since the 1980s each decade has been warmer than the previous one,” the UN agency said, warning “this trend is expected to continue”.  

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said increases in global temperatures had already had dire consequences, pointing to “retreating ice, record sea levels, increasing ocean heat and acidification, and extreme weather”.



Its research also confirmed data released by the European Union’s climate monitor last week showing that 2019 was the second hottest on record, after 2016.



“The year 2020 has started out where 2019 left off – with high-impact weather and climate-related events,” WMO chief Petteri Taalas said in a statement, pointing in particular to the devastating bushfires that have been raging in Australia for months. 



“Unfortunately, we expect to see much extreme weather throughout 2020 and the coming decades, fuelled by record levels of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere,” Taalas said. “On the current path of carbon dioxide emissions, we are heading towards a temperature increase of 3-5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century,” he warned.  



Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies said the trend line was unmistakable and could not be attributed to normal climate variability.  “What’s happening is persistent, not a fluke due to some weather phenomenon. We know that the long-term trends are being driven by the increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere,” he said.

“It is no surprise that 2019 was the second hottest year on record – nature has been persistently reminding us that we have to pick up the pace,” said Manuel Pulgar-Vidal, leader of WWF’s global climate and energy practice, calling for dramatic measures to halt the warming trend.



“If we look at all the impacts around the world that are now occurring as a result of this warming, it is obvious that we are not succeeding in preventing dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system,” said Bob Ward of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics and Political Science.



https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/2019-hottest-year-warmest-decade-200115180358403.html



It’s not natural

This blog has already highlighted the manner which nature conservation is used as a political weapon such as the creation of a marine park in the Chagos Islands to prevent its people from returning and the eviction of local peoples from safari parks in Africa [see here]



It now appears that the Israeli government have now joined the trend. Israel’s defence minister has announced the creation of seven nature reserves in the occupied West Bank as part of efforts to maintain Israeli control of the area, saying the move would strengthen Israel and further develop Jewish settlements. The sites are all located in what is known as Area C of the West Bank that includes the strategic Jordan Valley, which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in September he planned to annex.  the Israeli-run reserves would be “under the responsibility” of Israel’s Nature and Parks Authority. He also announced the expansion of 12 existing West Bank sites managed by the Israeli authority, including Qumran, where the Dead Sea Scrolls were discovered in caves between 1947 and 1956.





According to Israeli human rights organisation Peace Now, the designated reserves total about 5,300 hectares (13,096 acres), some 40 percent of it under private Palestinian ownership. Under Israel laws regulating nature reserves, Palestinians would be forbidden to cultivate their own land, the Peace Now’s Hagit Ofran said.

“If it’s a nature reserve, then you can uproot their trees and tell them they need a special permit for any agricultural activity. It will be easier now to evict Palestinians from there.”

One in five deaths due to sepsis

11 million people a year are dying from sepsis (blood poisoning) – more than are killed by cancer. There are 49 million cases a year.



Prof Mohsen Naghavi said: “We are alarmed to find sepsis deaths are much higher than previously estimated, especially as the condition is both preventable and treatable.”

“I’ve worked in rural Uganda, and sepsis is what we saw every single day,” said researcher, assistant professor Kristina Rudd. “My colleagues treating patients on the ground in low- and middle-income countries every day have been saying this for years, that sepsis is a major problem.”
Sepsis is also known as the “hidden killer” because it can be so hard to detect. It is caused by the immune system going into over-drive. Instead of just fighting an infection, it starts attacking other parts of the body too. Ultimately it causes organ failure. Even survivors can be left with long-term damage and disability. Bacteria and viruses that cause diarrhoeal infections or lung diseases are the leading triggers of sepsis. 
The overwhelming majority of cases (85%) are in low- and middle- income countries. Children were most at risk with four in 10 cases in children under the age of five.
But even in the UK, sepsis is a challenge. The death rate is higher than in countries such as Spain, France and Canada. There are around 48,000 deaths from sepsis in the UK each year.






More on the housing crisis – it is a health crisis, too

Private renting is making millions of people ill with almost half of England’s 8.5 million renters experiencing stress or anxiety and a quarter made physically sick as a result of their housing, campaigners have said.



Unaffordable rents, poor living conditions and the risk of eviction are causing a quarter of people – about 2.7 million – to feel hopeless while more than 2 million have been made physically ill, according to polling of nearly 4,000 private renters on behalf of housing charity Shelter. The poll suggested a third of renters had lost sleep at night because of worries in the last year



A quarter of families in England rent privately, nearly 1.6 million last year, more than double the number recorded in the government’s English housing survey a decade earlier. Landlords have seen the value of their investments more than double over the last decade to £1.6tn.





With fewer rented homes coming on to the market than the rise in new renters, the cost of lettings is forecast to rise by more than 3% a year over the next five years. Renters on average spend 41% of their income on housing costs, more than any other tenure, official figures show.



“Every day at Shelter we see the toll that expensive, unstable or poor-quality private renting can take on people’s lives and their health,” said Andrea Deakin, the charity’s emergency helpline manager. “We know how easy it can be to lose hope and feel overwhelmed by these worries, but our message is that you do not have to face them alone.”



Dani Wijesinghe, an organiser for the Bristol branch of the community union Acorn, said: “It is the rule rather than the exception [for tenants she represents] to be experiencing illness: most commonly anxiety, depression, and respiratory conditions.”



Polly Neate, Shelter’s chief executive, said: “A whole generation of children risk growing up surrounded by this constant stress and anxiety. This cannot go on.”



https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/jan/15/private-renting-making-millions-sick-england-poll

No Green Coal Mine

Britain’s first new deep coalmine in 30 years, the £165m Woodhouse colliery, is unnecessary and incompatible with UK climate ambitions, according to a report by the independent thinktank the Green Alliance which has found the colliery, along the coast from Whitehaven, will hold back the development of low-carbon steelmaking. The report, authored by two university professors who specialise in environmental issues, claims that opening a new coalmine would hinder this strategy by ensuring the continued availability of cheap coal.
It also refutes Cumbria county council’s claim that the mine, which aims to process 2.5m tonnes of coking coal a year for the UK and European steel industry, replacing imports from the US, Canada, Russia and Colombia, will be carbon neutral.



Prof Rebecca Willis and Mike Berners-Lee from Lancaster University, say the mine would produce 8.4m tonnes of CO2 per year, equivalent to the emissions from more than 1 million households.

The UK has set a target to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, and has committed to switch to lower carbon steel production, announcing a clean steel fund in August 2019. But the report says the proposed mine, expected to begin production in two years, subject to environmental certificates, will jeopardise these ambitions.
“The proposed mine is clearly incompatible with the UK’s climate ambitions and the need for a clean energy future. The new government has championed its commitment to climate action. It now needs to set out its policy on fossil fuel extraction, making clear that digging more coal out of the ground is no longer acceptable,” Willis said.

Dustin Benton, Green Alliance’s policy director, said: “Clean energy has already made coal obsolete in the power sector. Our previous work shows that UK demand for coking coal would halve if steel producers opted for cheaper, cleaner steel production using today’s technologies. In addition, innovation in zero carbon steel production means this mine will likely become redundant in the near future, saddling Cumbria with an expensive stranded asset.”



Over-population is a problem for capitalism, not socialism



World hunger exists in spite of an abundance of food . Therefore increased food production is no solution. The problem is that many people are too poor to buy readily available food. Is that too difficult to comprehend? For many people, even those keenly interested in the environment, it appears so. Studies pointing to ecological limits to sustain people are often expressed in terms of carrying capacity but these can be different, based on the way we consume resources etc so it is hard to say for sure what over population means let alone if we are at some threshold, below, or above it. There are enough resources to sustain even a  larger population than we currently have. Environmentalist activists who have a genuine altruistic nature and concerns for people and the environment follow the Malthusian principles that simple numbers matter which assumes that if poverty exists it must be because of overpopulation, which is the fault of those people  and their bed-fellows are those who use these same figures for racist purposes—to discriminate against immigrants, to in essence promote eugenics, social Darwinism and so on with such solutions include following draconian population reduction policies, increasing restrictive immigration policies and so on.



People are hungry because they cannot afford food, not because the population is growing so fast that food is becoming scarce. Capitalist economics has led to immense poverty and hunger, and it has not been food scarcity due to over population the cause of hunger around the world. When weighing the impacts on demands by populations versus the way large chemical companies and industrial agricultural businesses promote certain types of agricultural practices, and the serious threat of top soil loss (which will affect yields in the future, where large populations could feel an additional burden), it is less certain that populations and over population is the main cause. In other words, it is a political problem, not a shortage problem. Most hungry populations live in countries that have food surpluses rather than deficits. In fact, it is interesting to note that criticism of Malthusian argumant point out how that it is based on class distinctions, looking at the poor as the cause of the problems.



To understand why people go hungry you must stop thinking about food as something farmers grow for others to eat, and begin thinking about it as something companies produce for other people to buy.
· Food is a commodity. …
· Much of the best agricultural land in the world is used to grow commodities such as cotton, sisal, tea, tobacco, sugar cane, and cocoa, items which are non-food products or are marginally nutritious, but for which there is a large market.
· Millions of acres of potentially productive farmland is used to pasture cattle, an extremely inefficient use of land, water and energy, but one for which there is a market in wealthy countries.
· More than half the grain grown in the United States (requiring half the water used in the U.S.) is fed to livestock, grain that would feed far more people than would the livestock to which it is fed. …
The problem, of course, is that people who don’t have enough money to buy food (and more than one billion people earn less than $1.00 a day), simply don’t count in the food equation.
· In other words, if you don’t have the money to buy food, no one is going to grow it for you.
· Put yet another way, you would not expect The Gap to manufacture clothes, Adidas to manufacture sneakers, or IBM to provide computers for those people earning $1.00 a day or less; likewise, you would not expect the food corporations to produce food for them.
What this means is that ending hunger requires doing away with the system that only ensuring those people who have enough money food to eat.

High mortality balanced by a high birth rate led to stable populations but now we have decreasing death rates in poorer countries, due to medical enhancements for child survival, better nutrition, improved sanitation etc led to population increases and that is leading to a drop in fertility rates and family sizes. Religious beliefs that promote large families and lack of education for women are weakening.



For socialists population numbers are a concern as is nvironmental degradation a concern. But the idea to blame environmental degradation on over population and accused the poor of the problems, and not the effects of the economic system that are more damaging leads to inappropriate suggestions on how to deal with the issue. Poverty clearly is related to colonialism and the expansion of the capitalist world economy.

It is foolish to expect a woman to have fewer children if they are her major source of economic security. And it is foolish to force families to reduce their size if the family’s economic well-being depends on the size of the family production unit and its ability to supply labour or bring in additional wages. Poor people do have large families but usually because they need to. For a start, many children die young, so couples have more as a safeguard. Those who do survive often bring in additional income for the family, help with farm work and provide security for parents in their old age.
There’s no doubt that a rapidly growing population can strain a poor country’s natural and financial resources. However, concern over population size often obscures the fact that it’s inequitable distribution of resources (like land) among people, rather than their numbers, that causes poverty.
· Fertility and population-growth rates are declining worldwide.
· Population density nowhere explains today’s widespread hunger.
· Rapid population growth is not the root cause of hunger but is-like hunger-a consequence of social inequities that deprive the poor majority, especially poor women, of the security and economic opportunity necessary for them to choose fewer children.
· To bring the human population into balance with economic resources and the environment, societies must address the extreme maldistribution of access to resources-land, jobs, food, education, and health care. That is our real challenge.
· Family planning cannot by itself reduce population growth, though it can speed a decline. Family planning can best contribute to the transition when it is but one part of comprehensive changes in health care that expand human freedom and opportunity rather than control behavior.

To attack high birth rates without attacking the causes of poverty and the disproportionate powerlessness of people is fruitless. It is a tragic diversion.



Populations no doubt are large in many countries, and demands on resources are obviously large which affect and put stress on the environment. But the claim that overpopulation is the major cause of environmental degradation accurate? While populations can burden the environment, it is the relative impact of population numbers alone versus why and how resource are used that determine the ecological consequences.



Many nations needlessly expend labor, resources, and materials  to support their militaries and are locked into a wasteful system of production and distribution.



How land is used can have enormous impacts on the environment and its sustainability.  Land ownership has become more concentrated in the hands of larger companies, larger agribusinesses and so on which increases hunger and drives rural workers out of jobs. It leads to an increase in  migration as people move to the cities or different countries in hope for a better chance. These economic policies that are based less on people’s sharing and development, but more on acquiring wealth and profit lead to additional stress on the larger cities to provide for more people. It also results in more slum areas, health problems and so on. Many easily conclude that by just looking at the cities that we have overpopulation in the world. While the cities are no doubt facing problems of over population, a variety of political and economic circumstances are leading to such conditions and looking only at cities to determine if the planet is over populated misses out these factors.



Land is often mis-used for less than ideal purposes, such as
· Growing cash crops (bananas, sugar, coffee, tea etc) for export to wealthier countries (primarily);
· Diverting productive land for non-productive uses (tobacco, growing flowers for export markets, etc);
· Clearing land and used to grow things like cattle for beef exports. (Parts of the Amazon for example, are cleared for cattle ranches so the beef can be exported for use in fast food restaurants. Smaller parts are cleared by the poor who are forced onto marginal lands, or frontier areas due to poverty.

International trade agreements result in luxuries turned into necessities. Some people, being pushed off their own lands, will move to less arable land or into forests in the hope to farm that, which may conflict with wildlife. Many nature reserves are likewisee encroached upon, not by choice but necessity. Land ownership for the poor provides mechanisms to ensure sustainable farming.



The science of ecological limits is often used to conclude that population growth and numbers are the major cause of environmental degradation.The carrying capacity, also known as the ecological footprint is frequently cited by environmentalists. The problem about the theory of carrying capacity is that our capacity for culture and symbolic thought enables us constantly to alter our diets and the way we exploit the environment for food. … Human beings are capable of constantly changing the rules of subsistence by altering their resource base. In fact, estimates on the Earth’s carrying capacity vary widely. It is consequently difficult if not impossible to predict when our ability to provide for additional people will end, if ever. Socialists declare that how we organize ourselves to make use of resources — i.e. our political and economic choices — is the important aspect. What reason we make use of resources is the vital issue. How we interact with each other in all facets of human activitiesare often not factored in by over-populationists. By making this assumption that only population levels are the root cause, rather than a symptom it results in the promotion of ineffective policies, and blaming the victims leaving unaddressed the underlying causes. More people will be poor. More people will go hungry.



For sure the poor want to consume more and such consumption will increase problems no doubt.  Whether intentional or not we cannot deny the poor to have a comfortable secure life like ourelves by equating it will mean less for us and the environment! In order for the elite to thrive, the majority have to go without and this is one of the major (if not the major) causes of world poverty, albeit one that is largely ignored, unknown or denied. The plain fact is that we are starving people, not deliberately in the sense that we want them to die, but wilfully in the sense that we prefer their death to our own inconvenience.

Hence, it is important to address these models of consumption that are now becoming global (via globalization) lifestyles. It is not that the poor should be denied increased consumptions but more that the form of consumption being promoted is what is causing the most environmental degradation and it is that form that is being spread globally. The poor can improve their standards of living while also reducing the  waste created bye current systems of resource usage.
Most of the world’s resources are not being consumed for the world’s majority of people. Hence, it is difficult to claim that the world’s poor and largely populated countries are the major cause of environmental degradation. 
As a result, depending on how one looks at it, population issues are not easily reduced and understood by science alone, but the impact of many issues in combination.

 

Richer is Better

Once again the research is clear…being rich adds nine years to healthy life expectancy: a life free from disability and pain.





The 10-year study, conducted across the UK and US, looked at all the social and economic factors behind the reasons why people sink into ill-health as they age.
“We found that socio-economic inequalities in disability-free life expectancy were similar across all ages in England and the US but the biggest socio-economic advantage in both countries and across all age groups was wealth,” said Dr Paola Zaninotto, a professor in epidemiology and healthcare at University College London. “By measuring healthy life expectancy we can get an estimate of the number of years of life spent in favourable states of health or without disability,” said Zaninotto. “We know that improving both the quality and the quantity of years that individuals are expected to live has implications for public expenditure on health, income, long-term care of older people and work participation and our results suggest that policy makers in both England and the US must make greater efforts into reducing health inequalities,” she adde

The English Longitudinal Study of Ageing and the US Health and Retirement Study

both found that while life expectancy is a useful indicator of health, the quality of life as we age is crucial to determining our health. 



In both countries people in the study were divided into groups based on total household wealth. Comparisons were made between the richest and least wealthy groups. The paper shows that at 50 the wealthiest men in England and the US lived about an additional 31 healthy years, compared with about 22 to 23 years for those in the poorest wealth groups. Women from the wealthiest groups from the US and England lived around an additional 33 “healthy” years, compared with 24.6 and 24 years from the poorest wealth groups in England the US respectively.



Recent ONS statistics also showed that those aged 65 are seeing their healthy life expectancy increase: since 2009, men in England and Wales aged 65 have gained 31.5 weeks of life and 33.5 weeks of healthy life. Women of the same age have gained 17.4 weeks of life and 23.3 weeks of healthy life over the same period. But the data also revealed that children born today are likely to spend a larger proportion of their lives in poor health than their grandparents. They will also benefit from substantially smaller increases in their life expectancy than those born a few years earlier, in the first decade of the 21st century.

In contrast, the proportion of life expected to be spent in good health in the UK has decreased between 2009-11 and 2016-18, from 79.9% to 79.5% for males and from 77.4% to 76.7% for females.



https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/jan/15/being-wealthy-adds-nine-years-to-life-expectancy-says-study

The poor in debt

Low-income households have recorded a sharp rise in the use of potentially expensive consumer debt over the past decade and are now vulnerable to unexpected hard times, the Resolution Foundation, a thinktank has said.



It said the increasing use of credit cards, store cards and overdrafts by those struggling to make ends meet should concern policymakers.
The proportion of low-income households using some form of consumer debt rose by 9% (from 53% to 62%) between the three-year periods of 2006-08 and 2016-19 – a far steeper increase than the one-point rise (to 64%) among high-income households. Rising use of consumer debt had been concentrated in products with high interest rates that – unlike mortgage debt – had not got cheaper over the past decade.
Credit card use (with an average quoted interest rate of 20%, up from 15% in 2008) among low-income households grew by 13 percentage points from 2006-08 and 2016-19, while the use of overdrafts (with an average quoted interest rate of 15-20%) grew by 4 percentage points.

Kathleen Henehan, a Resolution Foundation policy analyst said, “Access to new credit can be hugely beneficial for low-income families, but with many also reporting that they have no savings to fall back on, these high debt repayment pressures are a sign of stretched living standards. The risk is that this leaves them far too exposed to future financial shocks, reinforcing the need for policy makers to focus on the living standards of those on low and middle incomes.”



https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/jan/15/sharp-rise-in-uk-consumer-debt-among-less-well-off-thinktank-warns

Australia’s Environment Emergency

Melbourne has been hit by hazardous air pollution as smoke from bushfires in Victoria’s east and in New South Wales drifts through the state. 



Air quality been categorised as very poor by the Environmental Protection Authority.

Air quality forecasts for Geelong, Latrobe Valley, Melbourne, central region, all of Gippsland and the north central region were all listed as hazardous for Tuesday by the EPA.
Several areas in New South Wales and Victoria have already been issued with warnings about the quality of their drinking water.



Business As Usual

Siemens has decided to put profits ahead of the environment. 



Siemens has made its decision to provide infrastructure for the huge Carmichael coal mine in the Australian state of Queensland.  The division has signed a contract with Indian mining giant Adani to build a signaling system for the rail connection between its Carmichael coal mine in Queensland, Australia, and a terminal for shipping the coal abroad. A major point criticism of the project is the terminal in eastern Australia, which the activists claim will threaten the coral habitat of Australia’s Great Barrier Reef. More general concern comes with the use of coal as such — a commodity which is in the firing line for its huge carbon emissions.



The contract may be worth €18 million ($20 million) 



Despite various efforts, humanity is now pumping more CO2 into the atmosphere than ever before. One reason is that governments do not do enough to keep companies in line, for fear that national economies will suffer. They do not give them sufficient incentive to introduce effective measures that are more than simply image-related. The pursuit of profits takes precedence over protecting the environment.
The likes of BlackRock, Vanguard, Goldman Sachs and others, so far,  show little enthusiasm for protecting the climate.

https://www.dw.com/en/opinion-siemens-chooses-profits-over-environment/a-51991877

https://www.dw.com/en/opinion-why-siemens-cannot-pull-out-of-the-adani-coal-mine/a-51990282