The number of shoplifting crimes in Poland increased by almost a third in 2022, newspaper Rzeczpospolita reported on Thursday, citing police data.

Statistics showed that the number of thefts increased by as much as 31.1% on an annual basis, to over 32,000 cases. Out of 16 Polish regions, only Lublin reportedly did not record an increase in such crimes.

The rise in theft is “a clear signal of trouble on the market,” the president of the Polish Trade and Distribution Organization Renata Juszkiewicz was quoted as saying. Soaring prices have been pushing people to commit such crimes, she suggested, adding that it is “a huge challenge” for stores while prompting further increases in operating costs.

The report indicated that food was stolen most of all, followed by luxury items such as expensive perfumes and spirits, as well as small electronics.

The Polish economy slowed in 2022 amid soaring inflation and a plunge in consumer spending brought on by the conflict in neighbouring Ukraine and the impact of sanctions on Russia. Official statistics show that inflation accelerated in the beginning of 2023, with consumer prices jumping 17.2% in January from a year ago. Economists are forecasting that inflation will continue to rise, with Poland projected to have one of the EU’s highest rates this year.

The governor of Poland’s central bank, Adam Glapinski, said he expects the country to avoid a recession, although there may be temporary fluctuations in the first quarter of the year.

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Dave C

 The number of shoplifting crimes in Poland increased by almost a third in 2022, newspaper Rzeczpospolita reported on Thursday, citing police data.

Statistics showed that the number of thefts increased by as much as 31.1% on an annual basis, to over 32,000 cases. Out of 16 Polish regions, only Lublin reportedly did not record an increase in such crimes.

The rise in theft is “a clear signal of trouble on the market,” the president of the Polish Trade and Distribution Organization Renata Juszkiewicz was quoted as saying. Soaring prices have been pushing people to commit such crimes, she suggested, adding that it is “a huge challenge” for stores while prompting further increases in operating costs.

The report indicated that food was stolen most of all, followed by luxury items such as expensive perfumes and spirits, as well as small electronics.

The Polish economy slowed in 2022 amid soaring inflation and a plunge in consumer spending brought on by the conflict in neighbouring Ukraine and the impact of sanctions on Russia. Official statistics show that inflation accelerated in the beginning of 2023, with consumer prices jumping 17.2% in January from a year ago. Economists are forecasting that inflation will continue to rise, with Poland projected to have one of the EU’s highest rates this year.

The governor of Poland’s central bank, Adam Glapinski, said he expects the country to avoid a recession, although there may be temporary fluctuations in the first quarter of the year.

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Dave C

 There is freedom within

 Germany and Italy will slide into recession by the end of the year as inflation continues to rise, Fitch Ratings told Bloomberg on Thursday.

Although the downturn is not expected to be “severe,” the head of sovereigns and supranationals at Fitch, James McCormack, says that “recession is significant in and of itself.”

Inflation in Germany, the EU’s largest economy, accelerated in February, rising 9.3% on the year and 1% on the month, according to the latest figures from Germany’s Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). Surging food and energy prices dealt a major blow to the country’s economy despite relief measures taken by the government.

The German economy shrank by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in the final three months of 2022. The contraction came in larger than the previously estimated 0.2% GDP drop.

In Italy, the EU’s third largest economy, consumer prices rose 9.2% in February compared with the same period last year, down from a 10% increase in January, preliminary data from the country’s statistics agency ISTAT showed on Thursday.

Purchasing power in the country more than halved over the past year, according to a report by Nomisma think tank, which said that one in seven Italians complained they earned less than they required to make ends meet. A quarter of those surveyed said they spent all their money on essentials while 26% of Italian households said they feared not making it to the end of the month.

The US is also at risk of a “modest” recession by the end of the year, McCormack told Bloomberg, adding that the “UK is already probably there.”

The economist also pointed out that governments around the world are struggling to tackle the cost-of-living crisis sparked by surging food and energy prices since the start of conflict in Ukraine. So far there is little optimism about a rapid recovery and the rising costs have sent ripples of instability throughout the global economy.

The US is facing an economic downturn that could start in the third quarter of 2023 and continue into the first quarter of 2024, Bank of America’s (BoA) chief executive, Brian Moynihan, has warned.

Speaking at the Financial Review’s Business Summit on Tuesday, he said that the downturn would not be deep, and projected interest rates to start falling in the second quarter of next year. 

“It’s a very slight recession in the scheme of things. I don’t think you’ll see a deep recession,” Moynihan was quoted as saying by Reuters. “It will be more of a technical recession than it will be a deep drop in the US,” he specified.

A ‘technical recession’ means that there have been two consecutive quarters of negative growth in real GDP.

Moynihan also stated that the Wall Street bank’s forecasters estimate quarterly contractions of 0.5%-1%.

For the past year, the US Federal Reserve has made a series of interest rate hikes aimed at cooling down record inflation. In February, the regulator approved a quarter-point interest rate increase, which is the smallest one in several months, as the pace of consumer price growth has reportedly slowed.’

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Dave C.

Seven cent cotton and forty cent meat

How in the world can a poor man eat

Flour up high and cotton down low

How in the world can we raise any dough

Clothes worn out, shoes urn down

Old slouch hat with a hole in the crown

Back nearly broken and fingers all sore

Cotton gone down to rise no more

Seven cent cotton and forty cent meat

How in the world can a poor man eat

Mules in the barn, no crops laid by

Corn crib empty and the cow’s gone dry

Well water low, nearly out of sight

Can’t take a bath on Saturdy night

No use talking, any man is beat

With seven cent cotton and forty cent meat

Seven cent cotton and eight dollar pants

Who in the world has got a chance

We can’t buy clothes and we can’t buy meat

Too much cotton and not enough to eat

Can’t help each other, what shall wo do

I can’t explain it so it’s up to you

Seven cent cotton and two dollar hose

Guess we’ll have to do without any clothes

Seven cent cotton and forty cent meat

How in the world can a poor man eat

Poor getting poorer all around here

Kids coming regular every year

Fatter our hogs, take ’em to town

All we get is six cents a pound 

Vety next day we have to buy it back

Forty cents a pound in a paper sac

Dave C

 Around 630,000 small and microbusinesses in Britain have raised concerns that they may have to fold this year due to spiralling costs, Sky News reported on Monday, citing a study by website builder GoDaddy. Their collapse could reportedly wipe £12 billion ($14.4 billion) out of the economy.

More than three-quarters of survey respondents described the cost-of-living crisis as the biggest challenge they have ever faced, calling the price of energy their single biggest concern.

Microbusinesses, which are typically firms with fewer than 10 employees, represent 96% of all businesses within Britain’s private sector, according to GoDaddy’s UK manager Andrew Gradon.

“They are the lifeblood of businesses in the UK and it’s them that are on the frontline, very much feeling the direct impact of the cost-of-living crisis,” he was quoted as saying by Sky.

“Around 42% said that they wanted support with tax incentives but are also looking more broadly to business support – so looking at technical assistance for business development as well as support for digital strategy,” Gradon noted.

Meanwhile, a government spokesperson acknowledged that companies have been struggling with energy bills, noting that the government is providing businesses with billions of pounds in support.

“This support means some will be paying around half of predicted wholesale energy costs this winter,” he told Sky, adding that the government has “pledged further energy support from April onwards.”

In September 2022, the British government introduced the Energy Bill Relief Scheme, which has reportedly provided £18 billion ($22 billion) to businesses to help with soaring energy costs. However, the plan is due to come to an end in March, and a new support package will reportedly see funding reduced to £5.5 billion ($6.5 billion).

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Dave C.