An analysis by the Resolution Foundation think tank said nearly a fifth of British households would have to spend more on their housing costs by the end of 2024. Almost half of borrowers were on course to see their family budgets fall by at least 5% due to higher housing costs, which meant the “living standards pain from rising interest rates will be widespread”.

More than five million families could see their annual mortgage payments rise by an average of £5,100 between now and the end of 2024, heaping fresh pain on households already struggling with higher food and energy bills.

It said that approximately £1,200 of that £5,100 figure was due to expectations that interest rates would rise more quickly than previously thought because of the upheaval in the financial markets caused by the government’s disastrous mini-budget.

Lindsay Judge, the think tank’s research director, explained, “Households across Britain are currently living through an inflation-driven cost of living crisis as pay packets shrink and energy bills rise.”

Interest rates started the year at 0.25% the Bank of England is expected to push them up to more than 5% by early next year. After hovering around 2% for several years, mortgage rates have shot up. The average two-year fixed mortgage reached 6.47% on Friday. Experts predict homeowners will struggle to make mortgage repayments, leading to rising repossessions in 2023.

The Resolution Foundation said that while 1.2m households with variable rate mortgages would see their housing costs rise swiftly in line with the changes to the base rate, the impact on the 85% of homeowners on a fixed-rate deal would build over the coming years as they moved on to new deals. Mortgage payments for 1.7m households would increase between now and the end of this year. A further 400,000 households would have to start paying more in early 2023. By the end of 2024, 5.1 million borrowers – close to one-fifth of all households in Britain – will be spending more on their housing costs.

Borrowers in London would be hit hardest, with average payments set to rise by £8,000 over this period, more than twice the level of the £3,400 increase in Wales. Although higher-income households will face the biggest increases in mortgage costs in cash terms on average, the report said that it would be lower-income families with mortgages who faced the biggest increase as a share of their income.

Five million UK families ‘face mortgage rising by £5,100 a year by end of 2024’ | Mortgage rates | The Guardian

 A classified EU report on Frontex, the EU Border and Coast Guard Agency, details serious allegations of cover-ups of human rights violations. The EU’s best-funded agency, with a budget of €754m (£650m) has been under scrutiny due to reports of human rights violations at its borders, including illegal pushbacks of asylum seekers. 

The report, more than 120 pages long, is the result of a months-long investigation by Olaf, the EU anti-fraud agency. Until now the classified document has been available only to members of the European parliament under strict conditions. The report has been leaked, have now published the document in full.

It details how Frontex witnessed or concealed knowledge of pushbacks of asylum seekers from Greek territory.  Frontex staff expressed concern about “repercussions” from local authorities for reporting violations. The report testifies to the credibility of many of the pushback allegations investigated. Allegations concerning Greece make up a significant part of the investigation, but mention is also made of a serious incident of four migrant boats spotted in the Maltese search and rescue zone

EU border agency accused of serious rights violations in leaked report | Global development | The Guardian

Bankers’ bonuses have doubled since the 2008 financial crash, according the TUC. It accuses the government of enriching City financiers while “holding down” the pay of key workers.

Bonuses in finance and the insurance sector have reached a record £20,000 a year on average – which it says is almost one-and-a-half times the average pay collected by teaching assistants.

Average City bonuses increased by 101% in cash terms between 2008 and 2022, prior to the chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, announcing plans last month to scrap the bankers’ bonus cap.

“Everyone who works for a living deserves to earn a decent living, but ministers are holding down the pay of millions of key workers, while lining the pockets of City financiers,” said Frances O’Grady, general secretary of the TUC. “There is simply no justification for lifting the cap on bankers’ bonuses – especially when nurses and teaching assistants are having to use food banks to get by. The City is already a millionaire’s playground. It doesn’t need another helping hand from the Conservatives,” she added. “Ministers should be clamping down on this greedy bonus culture by putting workers on company pay boards and introducing maximum pay ratios.”

O’Grady said that instead of “featherbedding the 1%”, the government needed to act fast to increase wages across the economy.

 “That means boosting the minimum wage to £15 an hour as soon as possible, funding decent pay rises for all public sector workers and introducing fair pay agreements for whole industries,” she said. “But this is a government on the side of the super-rich – not working people.”

There are 3,519 bankers working in the UK making more than €1m (£880,000) a year, according to the European Banking Authority (EBA). That is more than seven times as many as in Germany, which has the second-highest number of €1m-a-year bankers. The latest EBA figures show 27 UK bankers were paid more than €10m in 2019, while two UK-based asset managers received between €38m and €39m, and one merchant banker was paid €64.8m. The merchant banker received a fixed salary of €242,000, topped up with a bonus of €64.6m.

Sharon Graham, general secretary of the Unite union, said: “Some companies in banking and insurance have been profiteering on the back of inflation after already making massive profits year on year. Now this government has removed the cap on mega-bonuses for bankers that was meant to help prevent us having to pay for another crash like 2008.”

Bankers’ bonuses double since 2008 crash, TUC study finds | Executive pay and bonuses | The Guardian

“…Imperialism is not the creation of any one or any one group of states. It is the product of a particular stage of ripeness in the world development of capital, an innately international condition, an indivisible whole, that is recognizable only in its relationships, and from which no nation can voluntarily withdraw. From this point of view only is it possible to understand the question of “national defense” in the present war correctly…”

A reminder from the German Marxist in 1918, Karl Liebknecht, about the rights of a nation to self-defence from invasion. 

” ‘But, since we have been unable to prevent the war, since it has come in spite of us, and our country is facing invasion, shall we leave our country defenseless? Shall we deliver it into the hands of the enemy? Does not Socialism demand the right of nations to determine their own destinies? Does it not mean that every people is justified, nay more, in duty bound, to protect its liberties, its independence? When the house is on fire, shall we not first try to put out the blaze before stopping to ascertain the incendiary?’ “

These arguments have been repeated, again and again…But there is one thing that the fireman on the burning house has forgotten: that in the mouth of a Socialist the phrase “defending one’s fatherland” cannot mean playing the role of cannon fodder under the command of an imperialistic bourgeoisie. Is an invasion really the horror of all horrors, before which all class conflict within the country must subside as though spellbound by some supernatural witchcraft? Has not the history of modern capitalist society shown that in the eyes of capitalist society, foreign invasion is by no means the unmitigated terror as which it is generally painted…”

“…In capitalist history, invasion and class struggle are not opposites, as the official legend would have us believe, but one is the means and the expression of the other. Just as invasion is the true and tried weapon in the hands of capital against the class struggle, so on the other hand the fearless pursuit of the class struggle has always proven the most effective preventative of foreign invasions…The centuries have proved that not the state of seige, but relentless class struggle is the power that awakens the spirit of self-sacrifice, the moral strength of the masses, that the class struggle is the best protection and the best defense against a foreign enemy…”

“…It is true Socialism gives to every people the right of independence and freedom, of independent control of its own destinies. But it is a veritable perversion of Socialism to regard present day capitalist society as the expression of this self-determination of nations. Where is there a nation in which the people have had the right to determine the form and conditions of its national, political and social existence…”

“…But what action should the party have taken to give to our opposition to the war and to our war demands weight and emphasis? Should it have proclaimed a general strike? Should it have called upon the soldiers to refuse military service? Thus the question is generally asked. To answer with a simple yes or no were exactly as ridiculous as to decide ‘when war breaks out we will make a revolution.’ Revolutions are not ‘made’ and great movements of the people are not produced according to technical recipes that repose in the pockets of the party leaders…What the Social Democracy as the advance guard of the class-conscious proletariat should have been able to give was not ridiculous precepts and technical recipes, but a political slogan, clearness concerning the political problems and interests of the proletariat in times of war…The voice of our party would have acted as a wet blanket upon the chauvinistic intoxication of the masses. It would have preserved the intelligent proletariat from delirium, would have made it more difficult for Imperialism to poison and to stupefy the minds of the people…“

“…as the horror of endless massacre and bloodshed in all countries grew and grew, as its imperialistic hoof became more and more evident, as the exploitation of bloodthirsty speculators became more and more shameless…Peace sentiments would have spread like wildfire and the popular demand for peace in all countries would have hastened the end of the slaughter…”

Karl Liebknecht: Self-Determination of Nations and Self-Defense (marxists.org)

 The Democratic Republic of Congo is referred to as “the Saudi Arabia of cobalt” for possessing 80% of the world’s known reserves.

Whereas a phone contains just thousandths of a gram of cobalt, an electric vehicle battery has pounds of the metal, and a quarter-billion such batteries will have to be manufactured to fully electrify the American car fleet. trucks and SUVs of the present moment will also require bigger, heavier batteries (like the one in the F-150 Lightning pickup truck, which weighs 1,800 pounds and is the size of two mattresses). They will, of course, contain proportionally larger quantities of cobalt, lithium, and copper.

Forbes reported recently that 384 additional mines may be needed worldwide by 2035 to keep battery factories supplied with cobalt, lithium, and nickel. Even were there to be a rapid acceleration of the recycling of metals from old batteries, 336 new mines would still be needed. A battery-industry CEO told the magazine:

“If you just look at Tesla’s ambition to produce 20 million electric vehicles a year in 2030, that alone will require close to two times the present global annual supply [of those minerals] and that’s before you include VW, Ford, GM, and the Chinese.”

 The New York Times reported on how the cobalt rush in that country has been caught up “in a familiar cycle of exploitation, greed, and gamesmanship that often puts narrow national aspirations above all else.” There is a most intense rivalry between China and the United States.

Fifteen of 19 cobalt mines in Congo are now under Chinese control. In and around those mines, the health and the safety of workers have been severely compromised, while local residents have been displaced from their homes. People sneaking into the area to collect leftover lumps of cobalt to sell are being shot at.

The NYT further reported, “Troops with AK-47s were posted outside the mine this year, along with security guards hired from a company founded by Erik Prince.” Prince is notorious for having been the founder and boss of the mercenary contractor Blackwater.

 The bulk of the world’s lithium production occurs in Australia, Chile, and China, while there are vast unexploited reserves in the southern part of Bolivia where it joins Chile and Argentina in what’s come to be known as the “lithium triangle.” China owns lithium mines outright throughout that triangle and in Australia, and two-thirds of the world’s lithium processing is done in Chinese-owned facilities.

Lithium extraction and processing is not exactly a green business. In Chile’s Atacama Desert, for instance, where lithium mining requires vast evaporation ponds, a half million gallons of water are needed for every metric ton of lithium extracted. The process accounts for 65% of the total amount of water used in that region and causes extensive soil and water contamination, as well as air pollution.

Tesla’s Elon Musk has been trying for years to get his hands on Bolivia’s pristine lithium reserves. When a Twitter user accused Musk of being complicit in the coup toppling Evo Morales, the Tesla tycoon responded, “We will coup whoever we want! Deal with it.”

During the U.S. occupation of Afghanistan in this century, geologists confirmed the existence of large deposits, and the Pentagon promptly labeled the country a potential “Saudi Arabia of lithium.” According to the Asia-Pacific-based magazine The Diplomat, the lithium rush is now on there and “countries like China, Russia, and Iran have already revealed their intentions to develop ‘friendly relations’ with the Taliban,” as they compete for the chance to flaunt their generosity and “help” that country exploit its resources.

The greatest potential for conflict over battery metals may not, in fact, be in Asia, Africa, or the Americas. It is in international waters, where polymetallic nodules — dense mineral lumps, often compared to potatoes in their size and shape — lie strewn in huge numbers across vast regions of the deep-ocean floor. They contain a host of metallic elements, including not only lithium and cobalt but also copper, another metal required in large amounts for battery manufacturing. According to a United Nations report, a single nodule field, the 1.7 million-square-mile Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ) in the Pacific Ocean southeast of the Hawaiian Islands, contains more cobalt than all terrestrial resources combined. The International Seabed Authority, issues exploration licenses to mining companies sponsored by national governments and intends to start authorizing nodule extraction in the CCZ as soon as next year. 

Opinion | Beware the Coming Wars Over Green Energy Resources | Priti Gulati Cox (commondreams.org)

Further Reading

AFRICA’S SOCIALIST BANNER: Cobalt and the Congo

Material World: Robbery on the high seas? – worldsocialism.org/spgb

  Oxfam, says one person is likely to die every 36 seconds between now and the end of the year in the Horn of Africa as drought ravages the region.

 The Egyptian regime has successfully silenced the country’s independent environmentalists in the run-up to hosting this year’s UN climate talks. Cop27 takes place in November in Sharm El Sheikh, an upmarket resort city between the desert of the Sinai Peninsula and the Red Sea. It’s a place where some of Egypt’s most pressing climate and environmental problems – rising sea level, water scarcity, and over development – can be found, yet delegates are unlikely to hear from Egyptian scientists, advocates or journalists on these topics.

A recent HRW report found that these and other sensitive topics such as environmental harms caused by corporate interests (tourism, agribusiness and real estate) and military businesses (water bottling plants, cement factories and quarry mines) have become “no-go areas” for academics and environmental groups. Also off limits is industrial pollution, which contributes to thousands of premature deaths every year in Cairo – one of the world’s most polluted cities. Those working on these issues have been arrested, forced into exile or silenced through a slew of bureaucratic restrictions that make research impossible.

Instead, new environmentalist groups working on issues palatable to the government such as trash collection, recycling, renewables and international climate finance have emerged.

Richard Pearshouse, environment director at Human Rights Watch, said “Outspoken, independent, strident voices have by and large been silenced, exiled, or coralled into working in safe, less damaging environmental spaces that match the government’s priorities. Topics the government considers sensitive are now environmental red zones or no-go areas in Egypt – and in other repressive regimes.”

Last year at Cop26 in Glasgow protests across the UK gave communities and activists numerous platforms to share stories, complaints and alternative solutions. None of this is likely in Egypt, where the right to protest and free speech has been violently quelled by the authoritarian regime since the Arab spring. Tens of thousands of political prisoners including human rights and environmental activists like Alaa Abd El Fateh have been locked up and tortured in the past decade.

“The environmental space in Egypt is already tightly controlled. The Fridays for Future and Greta Thunbergs of Egypts have been exiled or silenced. But this was a warning sign that we’ll likely see tight restrictions on how and where people can express dissent at Cop27,” said Pearshouse.

Egypt is not the first country to restrict environmental critics or civil society participation at the UN climate talks, and it won’t be the last given next year’s will take place in the United Arab Emirates – another country with an inglorious record of human rights abuses and urgent climate and environmental challenges.

Pearshouse explained, “What’s happening to the environmental movement in Egypt should be a wake-up call, and delegates must talk about human rights in Sharm. Having blind faith that the world’s authoritarian regimes, many of which have fossil fuel industries, will somehow come round to a just transition is profoundly naive.”

Egypt silenced climate experts’ voices before hosting Cop27, HRW says | Cop27 | The Guardian

 The manufacturer of one of only two cholera vaccines for use in humanitarian emergencies is to halt production at the end of this year, just as the world faces an “unprecedented” series of deadly outbreaks. 

Shantha Biotechnics, a wholly owned Indian subsidiary of the French pharmaceutical company Sanofi, will stop production of its Shanchol vaccine within months and cease supply by the end of 2023. Shanchol is one of only two oral cholera vaccines suitable for use in a global emergency stockpile used to supply countries battling outbreaks as well as for preventive vaccination campaigns. 

“To say the least, it’s a very disappointing strategy,” Philippe Barboza, the World Health Organization’s team lead for cholera, said. For a disease driven both by an excess and a scarcity of water, climate change had this year exacerbated all the usual causes of cholera, Barboza added. “What is, I would say, unprecedented is the concurrence and succession of massive outbreaks in different parts of the world,” he said.

Although easily treatable, cholera is estimated by the WHO to kill up to 143,000 people annually in the world’s poorest countries, where access to clean water and basic sanitation remains patchy. Countries including Haiti, Syria, Lebanon, Nigeria, Malawi and Ethiopia are fighting outbreaks now. 

While two doses of the oral cholera vaccine only give immunity for around three years in adults, they have come to be seen by health officials as an important tool. Although the long-term solution to cholera remains ensuring access to clean water and good sanitation, “the vaccine is the gamechanger because it allows countries to buy time to implement the rest,” Barboza said.

Of particular concern was the average fatality rate from the disease, which this year, according to the WHO’s data, was almost three times the rate of the past five years.

The increased fatality rate was also “extremely concerning”, he added, particularly as cholera was relatively simple to treat with oral or intravenous hydration and antibiotics.

“In 2022, people should not die of cholera,” Barboza said. “You don’t need a respirator or anything very complicated, but people are dying just because they don’t have access to healthcare. And this is not acceptable.”

Dismay as key oral cholera vaccine is discontinued | Cholera | The Guardian

  An analysis released today by Action Against Hunger,shows only 7% of appeals for urgent hunger-related funding through the UN humanitarian system are filled, leaving a hunger funding gap of 93%, according to “The Hunger Funding Gap: How The World Is Failing to Stop the Crisis.” The study examined 13 countries that experienced “crisis” levels of hunger or worse in 2020, and how the global community responded with funding in 2021. 

The majority (61%) of hunger-related appeals were not even funded to the halfway point.  Greater hunger levels don’t necessarily lead to greater levels of funding or media attention. In fact, countries where the hunger crisis was greatest actually received less hunger funding.

 828 million people — one in ten worldwide — are undernourished and as many as 50 million people in 45 countries are on the verge of famine. 

The climate crisis, war, and soaring inflation are impacting farmers’ ability to grow food and families’ ability to afford what little is available. These factors also are driving up the costs for humanitarian organizations to secure and transport supplies, contributing to a growing hunger crisis in many parts of the world.

The Hunger Funding Gap: How the World is Failing to Stop the Crisis – World | ReliefWeb