Exaggerating the Russian Threat

 


Professor Lyle Goldstein authored a report—titled Threat Inflation, Russian Military Weakness, and the Resulting Nuclear Paradox: Implications of the War in Ukraine for U.S. Military Spending—for the Costs of War Project at Brown’s Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs.


Goldstein’s paper explains that “Western strategists have a long tradition of overinflating Russia as a threat.”


The report says, “Russia is a weaker conventional military power than many in the U.S. had imagined; thus, there is no additional cause for intensified fear of a Russian military threat to the U.S. nor for the resultant expansion of the Pentagon budget.”

“On the other hand,” the document cautions, “if the U.S. and NATO increase their military spending and conventional forces in Europe, the weakness of Russian conventional military forces could prompt Moscow to rely more heavily on its nuclear forces.”

Goldstein an expert in Russian military strategic development incorporated Russian-language sources, which provided a “deeper, insider’s view” of the military’s “multifarious, endemic problems.”

Due to its relatively low military spending, “Russia doesn’t seem to have a military that is capable of protracted, large-scale offensive action, let alone expeditionary operations, that could threaten U.S. national security,” the paper says, detailing poor performances by Russian aerial, cyber, ground, missile, naval, and space forces against Ukraine this year.

 “Russian armies are completely unable to march on Paris or Berlin, let alone Warsaw or Bucharest now or in the foreseeable future. It is plain enough that they could not even conquer Kyiv,” the document states.

“Contrary to conventional wisdom, the U.S. defense budget does not need to continue to grow,” the paper emphasizes. “Rather, cognizant of Russia’s conventional military weakness, the U.S. military budget can instead be trimmed.”

To end Russia’s war in Ukraine, the paper suggests pursuing “de-escalatory approaches,” including “direct talks, reviving the arms control agenda, and pursuing military confidence-building measures between NATO countries and Russia.”

“The White House and Congress are fueling this war with a steady stream of weapons instead of pushing for talks to end the conflict,” said CodePink co-founder Medea Benjamin. “That’s why we, the people, have to rise up with a demand of negotiations, not escalation.”

Report Warns US Militarized Response to Russia Could Provoke Nuclear War (commondreams.org)

“A tsunami of hunger,”

 David Beasley, executive director of the U.N. World Food Program, told the U.N. Security Council that 345 million people facing acute food insecurity in the 82 countries where the agency operates.

It is 2½ times the number of acutely food insecure people before the COVID-19 pandemic hit in 2020. And 70 million pushed closer to starvation by the war in Ukraine.

50 million of those people in 45 countries are suffering from very acute malnutrition and are “knocking on famine’s door.”

“What was a wave of hunger is now a tsunami of hunger,” he said. “…There is a real and dangerous risk of multiple famines this year,” adding, “And in 2023, the current food price crisis could develop into a food availability crisis if we don’t act…The hungry people of the world are counting on us, and we must not let them down.”

U.N. humanitarian chief Martin Griffiths warned, “Famine will happen in Somalia, be sure it won’t be the only place either.”

UN warns up to 345 million people marching toward starvation | AP News

Who Said the Syrian War is Over?

 The United Nations has warned in a new report that Syria is on the verge of another flare-up that could spell a return to large-scale combat.

“Today, Syrians face increasing and intolerable hardships, living among the ruins of this lengthy conflict. Millions are suffering and dying in displacement camps, while resources are becoming scarcer and donor fatigue is rising,” said Paulo Sérgio Pinheiro, chair of the UN’s Syria commission. “Syria cannot afford a return to larger-scale fighting, but that is where it may be heading.”

In recent months, an intensification along Syria’s northern front has increased the suffering of citizens, warned the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic in its report.

Under the threat of another Turkish ground operation, the commission recorded continued mobilisation and fighting between Turkish and Turkish-backed forces and Kurdish-led forces in the north. In addition, Russia is still actively supporting the Syrian government, particularly concerning air strikes that have killed civilians and targeted food and water sources. Russian air raids over opposition-held areas had increased in the last few months, said commissioner Hanny Megally.

“We had an idea at some point that the war was completely finished in Syria,” Pinheiro told journalists, adding that incidents documented in the report proved this was not the case. The report found that “grave violations of fundamental human rights and humanitarian law” had increased across the country in the first six months of this year.

“Tens of thousands of Syrians remain forcibly disappeared or missing to date. Government forces continue to inflict cruel, inhuman, or degrading treatment on the relatives of the missing by deliberately concealing the fate and whereabouts of the missing,” the report outlined.

“We also see continued operations by Israel, as well as the US, Turkey and Iran-backed forces, in this protracted conflict,” commissioner Lynn Welchman warned. The report documented more than a dozen Israeli strikes across Syria in the first six months of 2022, including an attack on Damascus International Airport that put the site out of commission for nearly two weeks. The UN revealed that it had been unable to fly in humanitarian assistance to Syria during that time.

The UN also documented cases of people and families who have been unable to return to their hometowns and villages because their properties were confiscated by forces, or because they cannot return to their properties and land, fearing arbitrary detention. Against this backdrop, the commission noted that some neighbouring countries are creating concrete plans for mass returns of Syrian refugees

“Returns must be a choice and take place in a safe, dignified, and voluntary manner,” Pinheiro said.

Syria could return ‘to larger-scale fighting’, UN warns | Syria’s War News | Al Jazeera



Urban Mining

 According to Japan’s Environment Ministry, an impressive 210,000 metric-tons (231,485-ton) of metal was recovered in 2020 by specialist companies that operate as “urban miners.” The aim is to increase the amount gathered to 420,000 tons by 2030.  

Tons of disused electronic equipment that are wastefully dumped every year, Discarded mobile phones and television sets, computer motherboards and refrigerators, microwave ovens, car components and countless other household items contain varying amounts of gold and silver, lithium, nickel, cobalt, copper and zinc. They provide key components of batteries and high-tech electronics and can be reused if processed properly.

So much is discarded every year that a 2020 estimate suggested that there could be as much as 6,800 tons of discarded gold alone in Japan, which is more than the known deposits still waiting to be mined in South Africa.  

Japan harvesting junk electronics to tackle resource shortages | Asia | An in-depth look at news from across the continent | DW | 14.09.2022

Haitians Squeezed Further

  The government announced a substantial increase in the price of fuel that will further squeeze a population already struggling with soaring costs of living. It announced on Wednesday that the price of gas will more than double, with slightly smaller increases for diesel and kerosene. The government has justified the price increase by saying that it is no longer tenable to subsidise fuel as much as it used to.

Haiti had previously received its petroleum from Venezuela’s Petrocaribe programme, which shut down several years ago. Since then, it has helped subsidise local distributors who import fuel.

Protesters blocked roads throughout the capital Port-Au-Prince, closing off usually busy areas of the city to traffic. Schools and businesses closed as streets were blocked with rocks, vehicles, and burning tyres. Many people in Haiti depend on fuel not only for transportation, but also for electricity and cooking.

“It’s a very challenging time for Haiti right now,” Haitian journalist Harold Isaac explained. “We’re facing a compounding set of crises, the latest one being the gas crisis that really has made life very difficult for everyday folks here.” 

Haiti sees more protests as fuel price hike worsens public anger | Inflation News | Al Jazeera


Background Reading

Material World – A forlorn and forgotten nation – worldsocialism.org/spgb


Yet another climate warning

  



According to the United in Science report, the world’s chances of avoiding the worst ravages of climate breakdown are diminishing rapidly, as we enter “uncharted territory of destruction” through our failure to cut greenhouse gas emissions and take the actions needed to stave off catastrophe.

The United in Science report was coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization, and involves the UN Environment Programme, the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, the World Climate Research Programme, the Global Carbon Project, the UK’s Met Office and the Urban Climate Change Research Network.

Despite intensifying warnings in recent years, governments and businesses have not been changing fast enough, according to the report. The consequences are already being seen in increasingly extreme weather around the world, and we are in danger of provoking “tipping points” in the climate system that will mean more rapid and in some cases irreversible shifts. The world was also failing to adapt to the consequences of the climate crisis, the report found.

Recent flooding in Pakistan, which had covered a third of the country in water, is the latest example of extreme weather that is devastating swathes of the globe. The heatwave across Europe including the UK this summer, prolonged drought in China, a megadrought in the US and near-famine conditions in parts of Africa also reflect increasingly prevalent extremes of weather.

The secretary general of the United Nations, António Guterres, said: “There is nothing natural about the new scale of these disasters. They are the price of humanity’s fossil fuel addiction…”

Since Cop26, the invasion of Ukraine and soaring gas prices have prompted some governments to return to fossil fuels, including coal. 

Guterres warned of the danger: “Each year we double down on this fossil fuel addiction, even as the symptoms get rapidly worse.”

Guterres condemned rich countries that had promised the developing world assistance but failed to deliver. “It is a scandal that developed countries have failed to take adaptation seriously, and shrugged off their commitments to help the developing world,” he said.

Tasneem Essop, the executive director of the Climate Action Network, said, “The terrifying picture painted by the United in Science report is already a lived reality for millions of people facing recurring climate disasters. The science is clear, yet the addiction to fossil fuels by greedy corporations and rich countries is resulting in losses and damages for communities who have done the least to cause the current climate crisis.”

The United in Science report found:



1.

The past seven years were the hottest on record and there is a 48% chance during at least one year in the next five that the annual mean temperature will temporarily be 1.5C higher than the 1850-1900 average.



2.

Global mean temperatures are forecast to be between 1.1C and 1.7C higher than pre-industrial levels from 2022-2026, and there is a 93% probability that at least one year in the next five will be warmer than the hottest year on record, 2016.



3.

Dips in carbon dioxide emissions during the lockdowns associated with the Covid-19 pandemic were temporary, and carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels returned to pre-pandemic levels last year.



4.

National pledges on greenhouse gas emissions are insufficient to hold global heating to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.



5.

Climate-related disasters are causing $200m in economic losses a day.



6.

Nearly half the planet – 3.3 to 3.6 billion people – are living in areas highly vulnerable to the impacts of the climate crisis, but fewer than half of countries have early warning systems for extreme weather.



7.

As global heating increases, “tipping points” in the climate system cannot be ruled out. These include the drying out of the Amazon rainforest, the melting of the ice caps and the weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, known as the Gulf stream.



8.

By the 2050s, more than 1.6 billion people living in 97 cities will be regularly exposed to three-month average temperatures reaching at least 35C.

World heading into ‘uncharted territory of destruction’, says climate report | Climate science | The Guardian

The warning lights are flashing

 



More than 140 million people face acute food insecurity due to conflict and instability, even as climate change and economic precarity indicate that hunger needs will rise in the coming months.

Armed conflict, climate-related emergencies, economic hardship and political obstacles are leading to a growing wave of hunger in countries around the world. The misery for millions will deepen without immediate urgent action, the Red Cross said.

An emergency response alone will not end these hunger crises. Concerted action and long-term approaches are the only way to break the cycle. Political will and resources are needed now. Without them, many lives will be lost, and the suffering will endure for years. 

Measures must include strengthening grassroots food systems.

“Conflict is a huge driver of hunger. We see violence preventing farmers from planting and harvesting. We see sanctions and blockades preventing food delivery to the most vulnerable… A cycle of band-aid solutions will not be enough in coming years.” Peter Maurer, President of the ICRC, said

In Sub-Saharan Africa: One in three children under the age of five is stunted by chronic undernutrition, while two out of five women of childbearing age are anaemic because of poor diets. The majority of people in sub-Saharan Africa live on less than $1.90 a day.

In Afghanistan: The combination of three decades of armed conflict and an economic crash resulting in few job opportunities and a massive banking crisis are having a devastating effect on Afghan families’ ability to buy food. More than half the country — 24 million — need assistance. 

In Pakistan: The recent flooding has led to an estimated $12 billion in losses. Food security in the country was alarming before this latest catastrophe, with 43 percent of the population food insecure. Now the number of acutely hungry people is expected to rise substantially. Some 78,000 square kilometers (21 million acres) of crops are under water. An estimated 65 percent of the country’s food basket — crops like rice and wheat– have been destroyed, with over 733,000 livestock reportedly killed. The floods will also negatively affect food delivery into neighboring Afghanistan.

In Somalia: We have seen a five-fold increase in the number of malnourished children needing care. Last month the Bay Regional Hospital in Baidoa admitted 466 children, up from 82 in August 2021. Children admitted here die without the specialized nutritional care they receive.

In Syria: Food insecurity rates have risen more than 50 percent since 2019. Today, two-thirds of Syria’s population –12.4 million out of 18 million — can’t meet their daily food needs. The compounding effects of more than a decade of conflict, including the consequences of sanctions, have crippled people’s buying power. Food prices have risen five-fold in the last two years.

In Yemen: Most Yemenis survive on one meal a day. Last year 53 percent of Yemen’s population were food insecure. This year it’s 63 percent — or some 19 million people. Aid actors have been forced to cut food assistance due to a lack of funds. Some 5 million people will now receive less than 50 percent of their daily nutritional requirement because of it.

Crisis fatigue not an option as global hunger crisis deepens, the International Red Cross Red Crescent Movement warns – World | ReliefWeb

The Nightmare that is Somalia

 Peter Maurer, the president of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), warned that if the international community waits to take action until a famine is officially declared, “we know that it will already be too late. Tens of thousands of people will already have died by the time we declare a famine,” Maurer added, “The alarm bells are ringing loudly.” 

The number of people in dire need of emergency humanitarian assistance in Somalia has increased from 4.1 million at the beginning of 2022 to 7.1 million and is expected to continue to grow.

Francesco Rocca, president of the  International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), highlighted that 22 million people living in the Horn of Africa are already in the clutches of a growing food crisis. “The situation expected to deteriorate into 2023,” Rocca stressed, adding that what is being done was “minimal compared to the huge needs” of the region. Rocca said that “world leaders should listen to act immediately” in order not only to prevent a massive humanitarian crisis but also to establish “longterm solutions in the Horn of Africa.”

UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator Martin Griffiths said that in Somalia alone, more than $1 billion (€1 billion) is needed to prevent the worst from happening.

The Horn of Africa is currently witnessing its fifth consecutive failed rainy season. The war in Ukraine and its ensuing grain delivery shortages have further compounded the situation, as well as political upheaval across the region. More than 200,000 are at risk of dying — potentially by the end of the year. About half of the country’s population is likely to experience hunger and want in some shape during the same timescale unless aid is stepped up. The number of children facing the effects of severe acute malnutrition in Somalia meanwhile has increased to over half a million. 

James Elder, spokesman for the UN children’s agency UNICEF, said that this level of child famine had not been seen in any country yet this century, with more than 700 children already having lost their lives this year due to malnutrition. “We’ve got more than half a million children facing preventable death. It’s a pending nightmare,” Elder stated, echoing Maurer’s sentiments who said that children potentially dying of hunger “is the result of systemic failure.”

Meanwhile, outbreaks of infectious diseases have also increased in Somalia, with around 8,400 suspected cases of cholera and nearly 13,000 suspected cases of measles.

Somalia’s population is for the most part pastoral and nomadic, making it difficult to deliver aid where it is needed most. 

Abubakar Dahir Osman, the UN’s permanent representative in Somalia, however, emphasized that humanitarian aid alone cannot provide a lasting solution to the famine in Somalia. He said that the relationship between humanitarian aid and development needed to be strengthened to find sustainable solutions for those who are suffering.

Somalia′s ′pending nightmare:′ Millions at risk of famine | Africa | DW | 14.09.2022

Socialist Sonnet No. 77

 Must the Show Go On?

 

When, finally, a monarch’s life is spent,

Then a precisely scripted spectacle

Is enacted, highly political,

It becomes a theatrical event.

Cue republicans who are expected

To heckle from the fringes, even though

There would be a very similar show

For a head of state who’d been elected.

The crown becoming dislodged by fate

Poses the point, what need for any head

Of state is there, either living or dead?

Indeed, why have a nation or a state?

 Only when capitalism’s interred

Can a leaderless future be inferred.

 

D. A.

Save the Child Refugees


Children make up about one-third of all refugees and migrants arriving in Europe. A significant percentage of these children fleeing conflicts and insecurities in the countries of South, Central and Western Asia, come through Balkans route, which is part of the Eastern Mediterranean route towards Western and Northern Europe.

 The countries on the Balkans route, including Greece, Bulgaria, and Croatia, which are members of the EU, are mainly seen as transit countries by refugees and migrants, as they try to continue their way towards the more developed countries of Western Europe.

An in-depth analysis by Save the Children reveals:

·Likely all children who migrate using the Balkans route to cross Europe are subjected to violence which threatens their physical or emotional survival

·According to children’s testimonies, police at the borders are the most common perpetrators, as well as smugglers they rely on to cross borders

·Children report smugglers sometimes kill or leave children and adults in conditions they would not be able to survive on their own, and the dead bodies then remain to be seen by other children travelling on the same route

·The deterrence and containment policies prioritised by the European Union and countries along the Balkans route are the cause of the violence

·Inadequate and often inhumane reception conditions in prison-like camps exacerbate the suffering of children, and the lack of adequate mental health support increases the risk of harm.

The report reveals a critical lack of protection for child migrants across Europe, with children reporting violence is now an integral and an almost inevitable part of their migration experience. About one in three of the children now believe that no one can help them on their journey, and some believe they are no longer able to help themselves.

The report reveals child migrants are at enormous risk of sexual violence, with boys travelling alone particularly vulnerable, and that children are being exploited at work during the journey and at their destination, including being recruited by smugglers for criminal and sex work. Almost two-thirds of children interviewed listed one or more incidents where they recognised or witnessed sexual abuse of a child.

 Those who were travelling unaccompanied, gave examples of self-harm, suicide attempts, and abuse of alcohol and other drugs as passive strategies for coping with stress and difficulty. Some children sought protection by becoming involved in criminal and sexual activities with smugglers and other adults.

Bogdan Krasic, Balkans Migration and Displacement Hub Programme Director, said:

“These findings are striking because they show the violence in these children’s lives is so present it has become normalized. Children are exposed to all types of violence, at all times – in their countries of origin, along the journey, in the countries of transit. A migration experience that includes multiple, prolonged exposure to violence may have incomprehensible harmful effects on the development of children.”

 Ylva SperlingSave the Children Europe director, said:

“The lack of protection at European borders has terrible consequences for children. Europe’s overwhelming emphasis on deterring arrivals means children are subjected to shocking violence by police and border guards; violence which is carried out with impunity.

“Wherever we go, Someone does us Harm”: Violence against refugee and migrant children arriving in Europe through the Balkans – World | ReliefWeb