What will be our post-pandemic future?

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 There is an argument that the greater danger than the COVID-19 pandemic is not the virus itself but the capitalist system. Humanity has all the scientific knowledge and technological tools to overcome the virus. The real problem is greed and ignorance. Many people are being encouraged not to respond with global solidarity, but instead to blame other countries, ethnic and religious minorities. Instead of politicians urging us all to develop our compassion and our generosity to help people in need, they are espousing conspiracy theories.



Much of the public fear the epidemic and seek a strong powerful charismatic leader to take over control. This makes it far easier for a dictator to do exactly that, to take over. He could easily create a totalitarian regime.



  If you have had demagogues who have been lying for years, then you have less reason to trust them in this emergency. We have witnessed a variety of populist politicians undermining experts, saying that those scientists are part of a remote elite, disconnected from the people, politicians who have been telling us things like climate change are just a hoax and you shouldn’t believe the scientific consensus. 



 We can prevent it from happening. But to prevent it from happening, we first of all have to realise the dangers. Fortunately, at this moment of crisis all over the world, we see that ordinary people are placing their trust in the scientific advice. When expert opinion warn us about other threats besides this pandemic, such as climate change and ecological collapse, we will heed their warnings with the same seriousness that we now take what they say about COVID-19. 



With the lockdown we have come to recognise who are the key essential workers and now know who is the superfluous class because of the current economic crisis.



But the capitalists are not stupid. They will endeavour to restructure their system to protect themselves. 



We can now expect to see an increase in the rate automation is implemented, with robots and Artificial Intelligence replacing working people in more and more jobs. Robots cannot get sick.



Employers have grown aware of which parts of their businesses permits employees to work remotely from home on-line and remote from fellow workers. It could result in the return to the “cottage industry” for many sectors of the economy and the possible collapse of organised labour for some.



We may also see that the supply chain being shortened and some countries deciding to repatriate manufacturing  instead of relying on off-shore factories elsewhere. It will mean ensuring that the policy of cheap labour and weak unions also continues to maintain that the same rate of profit still carries on.



 So because of automation and de-globalisation a large number of working people across the world may well

lose their jobs and security.



Adapted from here

https://www.dw.com/en/virus-itself-is-not-the-biggest-danger-says-yuval-noah-harari/a-53195552



Water World

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The number of people harmed by floods will double worldwide by 2030, according to a new analysis by the World Resources Institute, a global research group.
147 million people will be hit by floods from rivers and coasts annually by the end of the decade, compared with 72 million people just 10 years ago.
By 2050, a total of 221 million people will be at risk.
Floods are getting worse because of the climate crisis, decisions to populate high-risk areas and land sinkage from the overuse of groundwater.
The worst flooding will come in south and south-east Asia, including in Bangladesh, Vietnam, India, Indonesia and China, where large populations are vulnerable.
The effects will be less dire but still increasingly serious in the US, where the risk is highest for coastal flooding. The US ranks third among countries with the most to lose from urban coastal flooding in the next 10 years, after China and Indonesia. By 2050,  half the country’s exposed population will be in just three states – Louisiana, Massachusetts and Florida.

Once in a lifetime floods could become daily occurrences for most of the US coastline, according to a separate study. That’s because hurricanes are stronger, seas are higher and rain patterns are changing, all because of global heating caused by humans.



https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/23/flooding-double-number-people-worldwide-2030

The struggle for socialism

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 Opponents of socialism frequently say as an objection that there are different kinds of socialists and different kinds of socialism. They say there are as many different kinds of socialists as there are different socialists. Socialism rests on one fundamental principle, the common ownership and democratic administration of production and distribution of wealth. State ownership is not considered as collectively owned and they are certainly not democratically administered.



We are living in an age of crises. Social transformation is slow. It can take decades to change hearts and minds. But that is time we no longer have. It is time to do more than simply march in the streets with placards and sign petitions? Socialists constantly ask ourselves how long will it take to implement an alternative, post-capitalist society. We hold out hope from understanding that achieving socialism need not be for future generations but that a radical social revolution can move fast and quickly win widespread support.



As our situation becomes more dire, the old economic imperatives no longer hold water.



Recent research by Erica Chenoweth, a political scientist at Harvard, confirms that peaceful civil disobedience can not only be a moral choice but an effective one. She studied hundreds of grassroots resistance groups and concluded that non-violent campaigns were twice as likely to succeed as violent protests: 53 percent compared to 26 percent. 



The outcome of any struggle between them and the government will be decided in large part by public opinion. A downside to civil disobedience is the tendency of governments to increase anti-protest legislation in response. If protesters can be blamed for starting violence, that will elevate the administration and its supporters. And worse yet, it might also help legitimise harsher methods by the security forces in response. The success of non-violent resistance is partly due to strength in numbers. Such civil disobedience campaigns are more likely to be successful because they can involve people from a wider base, from all walks of life, who are not seriously risking their livelihoods or indeed their lives to participate. They can be old, young, middle and working class. They can be fence sitters.



Yet we cannot forget that despite being twice as successful as violent resistance, peaceful protest still failed 47 percent of the time. 



 Disappointment cannot lead to despondency.



Adapted from here

https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/civil-disobedience-climate-revolution-200227125836559.html



The Hungry Countries

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Yemen

Even before the war in Yemen began, the country was the poorest in the Arab world.
But since a Saudi-led coalition intervened in the conflict against Yemen’s Houthi rebels in 2015, the country’s humanitarian situation has deteriorated still further.
“As conflicts become longer, more and more people become vulnerable”, the WFP’s Chief Economist and Director of Research, Assessment and Monitoring Division, Arif Husain, told the BBC. “In 2016 in Yemen, we were maybe assisting three or four million people. Today that number is 12 million.”
To make matters worse, the WFP said earlier this month it would halve aid to Houthi-controlled areas, over concerns voiced by some countries that the rebels were obstructing aid deliveries.
Yemen reported its first confirmed case of coronavirus earlier this month, with aid agencies warning that the disease could quickly overwhelm the country’s weakened health systems.

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

After more than a quarter of a century of armed conflict in parts of the country, the DRC is the world’s second-largest hunger crisis, according to the WFP.
More than 15% of the country’s population are classed as “severely food insecure” – meaning that they are among 30 million people in war zones around the world who are almost completely dependent on aid. Almost $2bn is needed to secure the food supply for these populations in next three months alone, Mr Husain said.
“Those were the worst-affected people and now they’re in even more trouble,” he said.
The DRC also has 5 million internally displaced people and over half a million refugees from neighbouring countries.


In addition to the heightened risk faced by anyone living in war zones, displaced people are even more vulnerable during the coronavirus outbreak because they often lack basic hygiene facilities needed to help stop the spread of disease.
Earlier this month the spokesman for the UN’s refugee agency, UNHCR, warned that ongoing violence in the DRC was threatening efforts to contain the spread of coronavirus there, which has so far mainly affected the capital Kinshasa.

Venezuela

Unlike the other countries on the list, Venezuela’s hunger has not been caused by conflict or environmental factors, but rather by economic hardship.
Although Venezuela has the world’s largest oil reserves, hyperinflation in the country reached 200% in January last year, leaving a third of its people in need of assistance.
The difficulties have been compounded by a mass exodus of health workers, according to WFP.
And the problems don’t end there – around 4.8 million people (or 15% of the population) have left Venezuela in recent years, and hundreds of thousands of these migrants are facing food insecurity in neighbouring countries.

South Sudan

The world’s youngest country only gained independence from its northern neighbour, Sudan, in 2011. The move was meant to mark the end of a long-running civil war, but the country descended into violent conflict after just two years.
The WFP warns that hunger and malnutrition in South Sudan are at the most extreme levels since 2011, with almost 60% of the population struggling to find food every day.
Making the situation worse, swarms of locusts which had destroyed crops across East Africa arrived in South Sudan earlier this year.
“If Covid-19 was not a story right now, desert locusts would be the biggest story,” according to Mr Husain.
And as one of the most oil-dependent countries in the world, the country is likely to be hit hard by falling oil prices.
The country has now recorded four cases of coronavirus, according to Johns Hopkins University.

Afghanistan

Another country ravaged by conflict, Afghanistan had suffered almost two decades of war when the US invaded in 2001.
Eighteen years later, more than half of the population lives below the poverty line, and over 11 million people are classed as severely food insecure by the WFP.
According to Afghan government figures there have been over 1,000 confirmed cases of coronavirus.
While the numbers appear low, the country has limited access to testing and the health system has suffered under decades of conflict.
There are also fears that the virus could have spread after more than 150,000 Afghans returned from virus-stricken Iran during March, while tens of thousands of others returned from Pakistan.

…and the new 130 million

In addition to areas affected by war, environmental issues or economic crises, many more low- and middle-income countries are likely to be affected by job losses and other economic difficulties caused by the spread of coronavirus in the coming months.
The problem will be made worse by similar economic pressures in countries across the world, meaning that remittances, or money being sent back from relatives abroad, will fall in these countries.
“The most important thing is an affordable treatment which must be available to everyone across the world,” Mr Husain said. “But until we get to that point, we need to make sure we do everything in our power to save lives and protect livelihoods.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52379956




Socialism – The Solidarity Economy

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Since the COVID-19 pandemic emerged the need for a post-capitalist system has been evident to anyone who cared to pay attention. Those colloquially known as the 1% are committed to protecting their own interests even when it conflicts with the well-being of society as a whole. Working people who were previously struggling to survive above water who lived from pay-packet to pay-packet had been largely ignored until the lockdowns and now it is understood who are the key essential workers that keeps society running. The old norms which many found acceptable are no longer seen as inevitable. The capitalist system has nothing to offer except increased austerity and insecurity. The coronavirus crisis has revealed what was hidden obvious to everyone. It is clear that the profit motive made COVID-19 more deadly than it would have been in a socialist system.



The Socialist Party is not trying to save this dying system. We are working with determination to put an end to it and create a new world. Cooperation and mutual aid are now seen as important aspects of humanity. People are beginning to see different ways of living our lives which depend upon sharing resources and making decisions in a truly democratic process. Socialism is a model for ecological, economic and human sustainability that builds social cohesion. It’s time working people finally let go of the blind faith they have in reforms and regulatory system. Doing so will allow them to work in more meaningful solidarity for a better world.



We need to reach people in order to counter the pro-capitalist narrative that is everywhere. To build economic democracy, to create an alternative vision of how we can organize society we must talk to as many people as possible, not just to those who already agree with us. Most people who consider themselves socialists or who dislike capitalism are fooled by appeals to support ‘their’ country, ‘their’ military, ‘their’ leaders. They are told over and over and over again that ‘we’ are the good guys and that countries ‘over there’ are the ‘bad guys’. The rich and powerful have been dividing and conquering us for an awfully long time. It won’t stop until we build a powerful enough international movement of people who understand how this oppresses us.



We are living at a time when many of the inherent problem of capitalism have come to the fore. It is our moment to present the case for fundamental change. If we don’t succeed the world will continue on its current self-destructive course. People have power. Let’s use it. The only path is for people to organise for socialism. It is time to embrace the socialist idea and not step back from it.





No good news for climate change

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The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to cause the biggest fall in carbon dioxide emissions since World War Two but it will likely be short-lived and will not stop climate change, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said.



 The WMO expects a 6% drop in carbon emissions this year, an estimate on the high end of a range given by scientists, but the U.N. agency warned that it could be followed by even higher emissions growth than before the crisis. 



“This drop of emissions by 6%, that’s unfortunately short-term good news,” WMO’s Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said. “In the most likely case we will easily go back to normal next year and there might even be a boost in emissions because some industries have been stopped.”



In fact, the drop is not even enough to get the world back on track to meet the target of the 2015 Paris Agreement, which aims for global temperature rise of no more than 1.5 degree above pre-industrial levels, Taalas said. That would require at least a 7% annual drop in emissions, he added. Carbon dioxide remains in the air for centuries so falls in emmissions do not immediately impact climate and would need to be sustained over a period to eventually do so.



2015-2019 was the warmest five-year period on record, with the global average temperature up 1.1 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels.  So far this year, global temperatures on a monthly basis have been either the warmest or second warmest on record.



Taalas added that climate change was a “different magnitude of problem” compared with COVID-19 and urged governments to tackle it in the same spirit as they have the pandemic. “To be optimistic, we would learn from this example and use the same spirit to tackle the climate problem,” he said.



https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-climate/drop-in-emissions-due-to-pandemic-wont-fix-climate-wmo-says-idUKKCN2241ED

Migrants’ Remittances to Home Countries Falls

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Global remittances are set to tumble by $142bn in 2020 as the coronavirus crisis curtails a lifeline for hard-pressed households in poorer countries.



The World Bank said that a drop of almost 20 percent in the money migrant workers send home would mostly be due to a fall in their wages and employment overseas.



“Remittances are a vital source of income for developing countries. The ongoing economic recession caused by COVID-19 is taking a severe toll on the ability to send money home and makes it all the more vital that we shorten the time to recovery for advanced economies,” said World Bank Group President David Malpass.



Remittances have become an integral part of the funding for governments in emerging economies, exceeding official aid by a factor of three since the mid-1990s and last year overtaking foreign direct investment flows as the main source of foreign exchange for low- and middle-income countries.



An estimated one billion migrants – about 270 million who work outside their home countries and 760 million internal migrants – each help feed, clothe and shelter up to three people “back home”, Dilip Ratha, lead author of the World Bank’s new report on the impact of COVID-19 on remittances, explained. “You’re looking at one-third of humanity.”



 Hardest hit will be countries such as Tajikistan and Nepal, where remittances account for around 30 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), said Ratha. Other countries that rely on payments include the Philippines, South Sudan, Tonga, and Haiti.





Lockdown or chained down?

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“A lockdown without access to food is going to be very tough on people, and one can expect social unrest arising out of it,” Andy Sumner, a professor of International Development at King’s College London, told IPS.



Sumner, along with Eduardo Ortiz-Juarez of King’s College London and Chris Hoy of Australian National University, is co-author of a report published in the U.N. University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER) earlier this month, which estimates COVID-19’s impact on poverty could push anywhere between 85 million people (at the very least) to 580 million globally into poverty.



WFP’s Senior Economist, Arif Husain said in a statement, “COVID-19 is potentially catastrophic for millions who are already hanging by a thread. It is a hammer blow for millions more who can only eat if they earn a wage…”



Sumner explained, “One important question is: will there ever be a vaccine especially so if there is no guarantee of immunity from COVID-19 even with infection. Then we need to ask, will everyone have access to the vaccine and will it be 100 percent effective. Or will we end up living in a new apartheid of COVID-19 between the vaccinated and non-vaccinated living in separate areas and working in different labour markets?”

Disney Tales

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Abigail Disney, an heir to the Walt Disney fortune has criticised the company for protecting executive bonuses and dividends of more than $1.5bn (£1.2bn) while cutting the pay of more than 100,000 workers to help weather the financial impact of coronavirus.



She said the $1.5bn in typical dividend pay-outs would keep staff paid for months.



“That’d pay for three months’ salary to frontline workers,” she said. “And it’s going to people who have already been collecting egregious bonuses for years. Dividends aren’t all bad, given the number of fixed-income folks who rely on them. But still 80% of shares are owned by the wealthiest 10%. Pay the people who make the magic happen with respect and dignity they have more than earned from you. This company must do better.”



Disney executives claimed to have made salary sacrifices to “better enable the company to weather the extraordinary business challenges”. Iger gave up the remainder of his $3m salary for this year, while Bob Chapek, who recently replaced Iger as chief executive, will forgo half his $2.5m base salary.



But Abigail Disney explained, “Salary is a drop in the bucket to these guys. The real payday is in the rest of the package.” The company has protected those lucrative incentive schemes. 
Iger earned a total of $65.6m in 2018 and $47m last year. His latest package is more than 900 times that of the median Disney worker’s earnings. Chapek could potentially receive an annual bonus “of not less than 300%” of salary, in addition to a long-term incentive award of “not less than $15m”.

https://www.theguardian.com/film/2020/apr/22/disney-heir-criticises-company-over-15bn-bonuses-cuts-pay

COVID-19 in Central America

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Most Central American governments reacted quickly to the pandemic, implementing strict quarantine and lockdown measures. But high rates of inequality, poverty and an informal workforce have led to civil unrest in countries where more than 30 percent of the population lives on $5.50 a day or less. In some cases, desperate citizens have been met with repression and arbitrary detentions as police and military, not doctors or nurses take to the front line in the war against COVID-19.



In Central America citizens are often forced to decide between staying home and feeding their families. 



  “After some days, the need to bring home some food became stronger,” said Tiziano Breda, Central America analyst for NGO the International Crisis Group.



 Throughout the region, citizens living in poverty have taken to the streets to protest government measures. Hungry street vendors protested in Guatemala. Panama reported recent arrests for looting. In El Salvador, discontent reached a head in late March when Salvadorans showed up in droves at the government office in charge of administering a $300 government subsidy. 

“The government is insisting on using confinement as a punishment to whoever violates executive orders, which are unsustainable,” said Celia Medrano, chief programme officer of San Salvador-based human rights organization Cristosal. “They have to consider that there is a situation of informal employment for subsistence for many people who are not in conditions to maintain quarantine in their own home.”



 In Honduras street vendors, laid-off workers and trash collectors have blocked roads in protest of a strict curfew that has worsened conditions for the nearly 50 percent of the population that lives in poverty.



“Most people in this country live day by day. You sell some socks and you buy some eggs,” said Bertha Oliva, coordinator of the Honduran human rights group the Committee of Relatives of the Disappeared in Honduras (or COFADEH, its acronym in Spanish). “They are hungry and they have to go out.” In Honduras, the situation has created a “pressure cooker” for people who don’t have enough to feed their children, according to Oliva. “It’s not the same to have everything in your house or to have kids at home dying of hunger,” she said. “So what does [the government] do? They repress the people who should not be in the street.”



“The only thing we are asking for is food,” one protester told Honduran media outlet La Tribuna. “We have taken this curfew seriously and we haven’t left.”



Protesters asking for food have been met by tear gas, according to a report by COFADEH. In at least one case, protesters have reported that police have threatened to shoot them with live bullets, the report says. This fits in with a pattern of excessive use of force against protesters by Honduran security forces. The Honduran government promised to distribute food to 800 million families. But recipients of the aid told Honduran media outlet Contra Corriente that the rice, flour and beans in the package is only enough to feed a family for two days.



In El Salvador, the Bukele government has suspended utilities payments, offered a $300 subsidy to some citizens and received a $389m International Monetary Fund loan for emergency assistance. In Panama, workers who have lost their jobs can receive $40 every 15 days to cover their basic costs. Guatemala has set up an emergency fund to provide struggling families with about $130.



These programmes are only short-term solutions, said Breda of the International Crisis Group, and they risk being manipulated for political purposes. 

“The risk of these packages is that the help is not being equally distributed,” he said.  Breda also warns that repressive measures to arbitrarily detain citizens and control their movements could become normalised in the long term, particularly if these abuses happen without resistance from citizens or civil society, he said.



“Where there’s no check, the government will implement these kinds of initiatives even when the crisis has passed,” Breda said.

https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/central-america-unrest-repression-grow-coronavirus-crisis-200422202713659.html

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