Real estate experts expect a further decline in new residential construction in Germany as building permits for dwellings slumped 20.6% year-on-year in February, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reported on Tuesday.

According to the latest numbers, a total of 22,300 building permits for dwellings were issued in February, representing a decrease of 5,800 permits compared to the same period last year. The number of construction permits has been steadily declining since last May and has fallen by 10% each month from October 2022, Destatis said.

In its spring report, the German Property Federation (ZIA) said that housing shortages are likely to have reached their highest level in 20 years and that the gap between supply and demand may widen to 700,000 buildings by 2025.

Industry experts blame the aftermath of the pandemic, coupled with material shortages and surging energy and building materials prices for the unfolding crisis. According to ZIA’s president, Andreas Mattner, the country is already experiencing a dire lack of housing and that a “very bad awakening” is on the horizon for Europe’s largest economy.

Another survey by the German Economic Institute (IW) said that more than half of German construction companies expected a decline in output this year while only 15% believe business will expand.

The building industry had warned last year of a dramatic decline in residential construction. In 2022, about 280,000 apartments were completed, while it is expected that about 245,000 will be finished this year.

The president of the Federation of the German Construction Industry (HDB), Peter Huebner, confirmed that high materials prices and soaring mortgage rates are making residential construction increasingly difficult.

In January, German Housing Minister Klara Geywitz admitted that the government’s building target of 400,000 apartments per year would be missed in 2023.

According to ZIA estimates, 1.4 million people will be looking for a place to live in 2024 and will not be able to find one “if we don’t turn things around immediately.”

RT 19/4/23

DC

 Inflation in the UK came in at over 10% year-on-year in March, the highest rate among countries in Western Europe, official data showed on Wednesday.

According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the consumer price index (CPI) in the UK fell by less than expected to 10.1% in March, whereas economists had predicted a drop to 9.8%. The February reading stood at 10.4% year-on-year.

“The largest upward contributions to the annual CPIH inflation rate in March 2023 came from housing and household services (principally from electricity, gas and other fuels), and food and non-alcoholic beverages,” the ONS said.

Food prices rose at their fastest rate in 45 years, with the sharpest increases in March reported in goods such as olive oil (up 49%) and milk (up 38%).

Britain is now the only country in Western Europe to report double-digit inflation. Austria is next at 9.2%, followed by Italy at 8.2%, according to data compiled by Reuters. The lowest CPI among the 14 countries in Western Europe was recorded in Spain (3.1%).

 in the UK came in at over 10% year-on-year in March, the highest rate among countries in Western Europe, official data showed on Wednesday.

According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the consumer price index (CPI) in the UK fell by less than expected to 10.1% in March, whereas economists had predicted a drop to 9.8%. The February reading stood at 10.4% year-on-year.

“The largest upward contributions to the annual CPIH inflation rate in March 2023 came from housing and household services (principally from electricity, gas and other fuels), and food and non-alcoholic beverages,” the ONS said.

Food prices rose at their fastest rate in 45 years, with the sharpest increases in March reported in goods such as olive oil (up 49%) and milk (up 38%).

Britain is now the only country in Western Europe to report double-digit inflation. Austria is next at 9.2%, followed by Italy at 8.2%, according to data compiled by Reuters. The lowest CPI among the 14 countries in Western Europe was recorded in Spain (3.1%).

Rt 19/4/23

THE cost of some everyday groceries has more than doubled in the past year.

As prices continue to soar at their fastest rate in 45 years, the Office for National Statistics has revealed that food and drink price inflation surged in March, rising by 19.2 per cent.

The price of bread and cereals increased by the fastest on record.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/money/22095460/basket-essentials-every-supermarket-cheapest-expensive/

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  One of the talks at this year’s  Summer School will be given by Paddy Shannon.  He will entertain and enlighten us on ‘AI and the Future of Work’.    Much as we hate capitalist employment, our lives depend on finding it. So what are we to make of the impending Artificial Intelligence revolution which, combined with robotics, threatens to destroy up to 30% of all jobs by the mid-2030s? 90% of the world’s most successful companies are already investing in AI, so is the future for workers going to be rosy, with high pay and abundant leisure time, a hellish Dickensian nightmare, or the much-vaunted Singularity beyond which capitalism as we know it may not even exist?

 A major financial crash will likely hit by mid-June, Harry Dent, economist and author of several best-selling books, told the David Lin report, last week. Dent, who has a history of making controversial predictions, believes that the current market bubble will burst and result in a financial meltdown. 

The bubble is a result of the US Federal Reserve’s loose monetary policy, which has artificially inflated the stock market, according to Dent. He expects the S&P 500 to collapse by 86% “in this crash” and the Nasdaq to plummet by 92%.



The crypto market will go into a tailspin alongside stocks, the economist warned, predicting that Bitcoin will tumble 95-96% from its November 2021 high.



“Bitcoin will fall from $69,000 to about three to four thousand,” he said, adding that “It’s exactly what Amazon and the dot-coms did.”



Dent points to what he sees as overlapping crises as the reason for his pessimism. The pandemic shattered the global economy in many ways, leading to job losses and reducing consumer spending. Additionally, unprecedented inflation in most wealthy countries and supply-chain disruptions have sparked serious concerns among investors and economists, forcing them to realise that “this is not a big correction — it is a major crash, one that you have not seen … in your lifetime, and the one that even the millennials will not see a bigger crash than this,” Dent added.

According to the economist, despite efforts by central banks and their “declared war on recession” “we keep falling back into the recession” because the economy underneath is “really weak and really needs to get rid of a lot of really bad debt and zombie companies and the central banks won’t let the economy do its thing.” 



Dent cautioned about a third wave of the crisis coming, emphasising that in his view “it’s going to creep up” on the Federal Reserve “before they can reverse the tightening.” 



“We have not cleaned up the massive debts and overvaluations of the biggest financial assets bubble in everything. We have never had a financial asset bubble in everything like this. This bubble has not been allowed to burst and clear out its excesses which we need to do. And I think we are into that process now,” Dent concluded.



The economist expects “a crash more like 1929 to 1932” referring to the Great Depression, stressing that this is his “best forecast at this time.”

RT 12/4/23

DC

Reading Capital as Crisis Theory

http://socialiststandardmyspace.blogspot.com/2022/01/reading-capital-as-crisis-theory-part-1.html

http://socialiststandardmyspace.blogspot.com/2022/02/reading-capital-as-crisis-theory-part-2.html

 “Taxpayers fund radical anti-election lobby group” read the shock horror headline in the Times (12 April). It was an article by two journalists about the Sortition Foundation that campaigns (as you might have guessed if you were familiar with the meaning of the word “sortition”) for political decisions to be made by people chosen by lot rather than by elections. This is something that is accepted by governments for at least advising them on some matters. Such “citizens’ assemblies” are chosen by lot in the same sort of way that juries are in court cases. It was also practised in Ancient Athens. As such, it has as much democratic legitimacy as elections, despite what the article suggests. 

The Sortition Foundation wants MPs to be chosen in this way. Which would of course eliminate the professional politician. A book by one of the Foundation’s founders, Brett Hennig, is called The End of Politicians. Naturally this wouldn’t be welcomed by the politicians. The journalists pointed out to one of the stupidest MPs, failed Tory leader Sir Ian Duncan Smith, that the foundation had been paid by the government to organise some citizens’ assemblies and got him to protest:

“How could they award contracts and award contracts and pay money over to such an organisation that wants to get rid of politicians.”

Getting rid of politicians might be considered a good idea by many. Being a career politician is a particular unsavoury profession — trading on problems people face and making a career out of making pie-crust promises to solve them. However, getting rid of them won’t solve those problems.

The Sortition Foundation argues that getting rid of politicians would make for better decision-making. “By removing elections,” one of its researchers is quoted as writing, “we remove the need for our representatives to court those with wealth and resources”. It wouldn’t, however, remove those with wealth and resources or their need to court political decision-makers.

The Foundation is assuming that in present-day society there is a common interest that a national citizens’ assembly — a “House of Citizens” — would be better able to identify. But, under capitalism, there is no common social interest. Capitalism is a society divided into two basic classes — those who own the places where the wealth of society is produced and the rest who can only get a living by selling their ability to work for a wage or salary— with antagonistic and irreconcilable interests. In addition, different sections of the owning class have different and conflicting interests. MPs chosen by lot would still be subject to lobbying and influence by these sections and would not be able to overcome the antagonism of interests between the owners and the wage-working majority. Capitalist economic reality would give them no choice but to take decisions that gave priority to profit making and taking.

Choosing MPs by election is a better system for capitalism. It enables the support for differing sections of the owning class to be measured and for the section with the most support to have its way. As long as capitalism is in existence, it is also better from the socialist point of view since it enables the socialist movement to send its delegates to the law-making assembly that is the key to controlling political power. Sortition would get in the way of this as there is no guarantee that a Parliament chosen by lot would reflect the degree of support for socialism amongst the population or a majority for socialism.

This said, in socialism, where would be a common social interest, there would be a wide opportunity to fill some posts by lot, maybe entire local councils, as one aspect of the participatory democracy that will be an essential part of socialism. But under capitalism it wouldn’t, and couldn’t, work as intended.

 “Taxpayers fund radical anti-election lobby group” read the shock horror headline in the Times (12 April). It was an article by two journalists about the Sortition Foundation that campaigns (as you might have guessed if you were familiar with the meaning of the word “sortition”) for political decisions to be made by people chosen by lot rather than by elections. This is something that is accepted by governments for at least advising them on some matters. Such “citizens’ assemblies” are chosen by lot in the same sort of way that juries are in court cases. It was also practised in Ancient Athens. As such, it has as much democratic legitimacy as elections, despite what the article suggests. 

The Sortition Foundation wants MPs to be chosen in this way. Which would of course eliminate the professional politician. A book by one of the Foundation’s founders, Brett Hennig, is called The End of Politicians. Naturally this wouldn’t be welcomed by the politicians. The journalists pointed out to one of the stupidest MPs, failed Tory leader Sir Ian Duncan Smith, that the foundation had been paid by the government to organise some citizens’ assemblies and got him to protest:

“How could they award contracts and award contracts and pay money over to such an organisation that wants to get rid of politicians.”

Getting rid of politicians might be considered a good idea by many. Being a career politician is a particular unsavoury profession — trading on problems people face and making a career out of making pie-crust promises to solve them. However, getting rid of them won’t solve those problems.

The Sortition Foundation argues that getting rid of politicians would make for better decision-making. “By removing elections,” one of its researchers is quoted as writing, “we remove the need for our representatives to court those with wealth and resources”. It wouldn’t, however, remove those with wealth and resources or their need to court political decision-makers.

The Foundation is assuming that in present-day society there is a common interest that a national citizens’ assembly — a “House of Citizens” — would be better able to identify. But, under capitalism, there is no common social interest. Capitalism is a society divided into two basic classes — those who own the places where the wealth of society is produced and the rest who can only get a living by selling their ability to work for a wage or salary— with antagonistic and irreconcilable interests. In addition, different sections of the owning class have different and conflicting interests. MPs chosen by lot would still be subject to lobbying and influence by these sections and would not be able to overcome the antagonism of interests between the owners and the wage-working majority. Capitalist economic reality would give them no choice but to take decisions that gave priority to profit making and taking.

Choosing MPs by election is a better system for capitalism. It enables the support for differing sections of the owning class to be measured and for the section with the most support to have its way. As long as capitalism is in existence, it is also better from the socialist point of view since it enables the socialist movement to send its delegates to the law-making assembly that is the key to controlling political power. Sortition would get in the way of this as there is no guarantee that a Parliament chosen by lot would reflect the degree of support for socialism amongst the population or a majority for socialism.

This said, in socialism, where would be a common social interest, there would be a wide opportunity to fill some posts by lot, maybe entire local councils, as one aspect of the participatory democracy that will be an essential part of socialism. But under capitalism it wouldn’t, and couldn’t, work as intended.

The Scottish DailyMail has an article which seems designed to ‘frighten the horses,’ and voters of the constituents of that particular paper. Some  appear not to be wholly in favour of ‘free’ money saying  ‘some may “milk the system”, “that it could reduce motivation to work”, and give “freedom to make bad choices”.

Perhaps anyone enamoured of the capitalist system might find it more profitable, and fulfilling, to learn about the only viable alternative.

The Socialist Party of Great Britain has branches in Scotland (contact details available from https://www.worldsocialism.org/spgb/contact/ )

“A Scottish Government spokesman told the Mail on Sunday: “Everyone in Scotland deserves to live healthy, financially secure, fulfilling lives and a Minimum Income Guarantee is an important step towards that.”

A SPBG spokesperson commented, everyone in the world deserves to live healthy, secure, fulfilling lives and Socialism is the way to achieve that goal.

There isn’t a ‘communism lite.’ If there isn’t a money-free, class-free, produce for use not profit society, then there’s not socialism/communism.

“Taxpayers in Scotland face footing the bill for an SNP benefits free-for-all which could see every adult in Scotland paid at least £25,000 a year.

Under the plans for a Minimum Income Guarantee (MIG), billions of pounds would be handed to the jobless and lower earners to ensure everyone has a “dignified” quality of life.

Supporters of the proposal – dubbed ‘Communism Lite‘ – say it would help fight poverty and tackle health inequalities and they are clear that it should be funded by massively raising taxes on medium and high earners.”

 https://www.scottishdailyexpress.co.uk/news/politics/scots-face-huge-tax-hikes-29723060

ScottishDailyMail 16/4/23

DC

 Food prices surged 18% globally last year, including a 21% rise in the cost of grain, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) estimated in its Global Trade Outlook published on Wednesday.

According to the organisation, fertiliser prices saw an even larger increase of 63% year-on-year. 

The WTO noted that, in theory, higher food costs “should encourage more agricultural production, resulting in greater availability and lower prices for food in the future,” but warned that move expensive fertilisers could lead to reduced crop yields and, ultimately, new price spikes.

The organisation also noted that food prices fluctuated strongly in 2022, first jumping 19% between January and May, following the start of Russia’s military operation in Ukraine, and then dropping 15% between May and December.

Overall, while “global food supplies are less precarious than many had feared” in connection with the Ukraine crisis, they “remain a cause for concern,” WTO warned. According to its calculations, the volume of world wheat trade, for instance, fell by roughly 7.5% since 2021, which leaves “little margin for error if a major producer suffers a crop failure or climate-related natural disaster.”

WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala on Wednesday called on developed economies to be vigilant to signs of the food crisis triggering hunger in poorer nations. She reiterated her earlier calls for lifting export restrictions on food and fertilisers, noting that as of April 2023, some 67 countries have such curbs. 

She also warned that global trade is likely to “remain under pressure from external factors in 2023.” According to her, these include the crisis in Ukraine and other geopolitical tensions, inflation, and the impact of tightening monetary policy.

“This makes it even more important for governments to avoid trade fragmentation and refrain from introducing obstacles to trade. Investing in multilateral cooperation on trade… would bolster economic growth and people’s living standards over the long term,” she concluded.

RT 8/4/23

DC

 Over 50 people have reportedly been killed and nearly 600 injured in fierce clashes between rival factions in Sudan, as the country’s army and Rapid Support Forces continue to accuse each other of sparking the bloodshed, while making conflicting claims on their gains.

According to the latest estimates by the Central Committee of Sudan Doctors, cited by Reuters, at least 56 people had been killed and another 595 wounded as of Sunday morning. Another medical union, the Sudan Doctor’s Syndicate, previously told AP it was unclear how many of the victims were civilians, and warned that the death toll could rise due to “many uncounted casualties” in various parts of the country.  

The row over how the RSF should be integrated into the military, and which authority should oversee the process, erupted in bloodshed on Saturday morning, with gunfire and explosions heard across the capital throughout the day and into the night.

Both sides used armoured vehicles and pick-up trucks with mounted machine guns in battles in and around Khartoum, according to dramatic videos. Witnesses also reported seeing tanks and jets, as the military said it launched several airstrikes against RSF positions.

The paramilitary unit claimed to have seized the presidential palace, state TV station, multiple airports and the army chief’s residence, and said it had inflicted heavy casualties on the Sudanese army. The leader of RSF claimed his forces are in control of 90% of strategic sites in the capital, Khartoum.

The military insists that all strategic facilities in the capital and across the country are still under its control. The military ruled out negotiations with the RSF, calling it a “rebellious militia” that must be dissolved.

The rivalry dates back to the rule of President Omar al-Bashir, who was ousted in April 2019. Sudan has since been in a state of political crisis. The country is currently led by the Transitional Sovereign Council. Its president – and de facto ruler of the nation – is army Chief General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan. RSF commander General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemedti, is the deputy chairman.

The exact power balance and the situation on the ground remains unclear, with the international community in unison calling for a ceasefire. The United Nations, the African Union and the Arab League have all urged the parties to return to negotiations.

China urged talks between the warring sides to “prevent the situation from escalating,” while the US urged “all actors to stop the violence immediately and avoid further escalations or troop mobilisations.” 

Moscow expressed hope that the conflict will “exit the military armed phase and turn into negotiations between the warring sides” as soon as possible, while urging Russian citizens currently in Sudan to stay at home.

RT 16/4/23

DC

 French President Emmanuel Macron has signed a bill raising the retirement age from 62 to 64 years. The reform has sparked nationwide unrest, with the political opposition and unions vowing continue contesting it.

The amendments were published in France’s Official Journal early on Saturday.

“The Social Security Code is thus amended… In the first paragraph, the word: ‘sixty-two’ is replaced by the word: ‘sixty-four’,” the statement reads.

The retirement age will be incrementally raised by three months at a time, starting from September, until it reaches 64 in September 2030.

On Friday, France’s highest constitutional authority gave the green light to most of the amendments proposed by the president. The Constitutional Council also shot down a request for a referendum, filed by left-wing politicians.

Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne described the decision on Friday as the “end of the institutional and democratic journey.”

The opposition and unions, however, refused to back down, with a decision on a second request for a plebiscite expected early next month.

Marine Le Pen, leader of the right-wing National Rally, predicted that the signing of the bill would “mark the final break between the French people and Emmanuel Macron.”

That sentiment was echoed by the First Secretary of the Socialist Party, Olivier Faure, who expressed doubt as to whether the president “will be able to govern” after his decision. Faure also pledged to “continue democratic harassment to roll back the president and his government.”

Veteran left-wing politician Jean-Luc Melenchon called for unity among those opposing the reform, and denounced France’s trajectory toward a “presidential monarchy.”

Meanwhile, unions have called on the French to rally on May 1 as part of “exceptional and popular mobilisation.”

Ahead of the Council’s decision, hundreds of thousands of protesters poured onto the streets of French cities and towns on Thursday.

In Paris, rioters vandalised several buildings, with police bludgeoning protesters with batons and firing tear gas into the crowds.

President Macron insists that the reform is necessary to prop up France’s ailing retirement system.

However, much of the French public has objected to the amendments being rammed through by Macron without allowing a vote in the lower House of Parliament. Opposition legislators twice tabled no-confidence motions against the government, ultimately losing both.

RT  15/4/23

DC