The world is facing an imminent water crisis, with demand expected to outstrip the supply of fresh water by 40% by the end of this decade, experts have said, according to a landmark report on the economics of water. The report marks the first time the global water system has been scrutinised comprehensively and its value to countries – and the risks to their prosperity if water is neglected.

Johan Rockstrom, the director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and a lead author of the report, told the Guardian the world’s current neglect of water resources was leading to disaster. 

“The scientific evidence is that we have a water crisis. We are misusing water, polluting water, and changing the whole global hydrological cycle, through what we are doing to the climate. It’s a triple crisis.” Water is fundamental to the climate crisis and the global food crisis. “There will be no agricultural revolution unless we fix water,” said Rockstrom.

Mariana Mazzucato, an economist and professor at University College London, also a lead author, added:

 “We need a much more proactive, and ambitious, common good approach. We have to put justice and equity at the centre of this, it’s not just a technological or finance problem.”

Many governments still do not realise how interdependent they are when it comes to water, according to Rockstrom. Most countries depend for about half of their water supply on the evaporation of water from neighbouring countries – known as “green” water because it is held in soils and delivered from transpiration in forests and other ecosystems, when plants take up water from the soil and release vapour into the air from their leaves.

Many of the ways in which water is used are inefficient and in need of change, with Rockstrom pointing to developed countries’ sewage systems.

 “It’s quite remarkable that we use safe, fresh water to carry excreta, urine, nitrogen, phosphorus – and then need to have inefficient wastewater treatment plants that leak 30% of all the nutrients into downstream aquatic ecosystems and destroy them and cause dead zones. We’re really cheating ourselves…”

 Global fresh water demand will outstrip supply by 40% by 2030, say experts | Water | The Guardian

 The Resolution Foundation has said typical household disposable incomes were on course to be lower by the end of the forecast period in 2027-28 than they were before the pandemic, when inflation was taken into account.

Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, was unable to change the course of declining living standards, the foundation said.

“Britain’s economy remains stuck in a deep funk – with people supported into work but getting poorer, and paying more tax but seeing public services cut,” the report said.

Workers also face paying more to the Treasury because personal tax thresholds have been frozen instead of rising with inflation, meaning wage growth pushes more people into higher rate bands – a phenomenon known as “fiscal drag”.

Intense cost pressure on public services from stagnant budget allocations and rising inflation were “largely ignored” in the budget, the thinktank said, adding that Whitehall departments outside the protected areas of health, schools and defence faced 10% cuts in real terms to day-to-day spending per head by 2027-28. This loss of spending power across most government departments will rise to 14% “if the newly announced aspiration for defence spending to rise to 2.5% of GDP is met over the next parliament”.

Budget: UK on track for ‘disastrous decade’ of income stagnation | Budget 2023 | The Guardian

 Ministers are poised to cut £250m from investment in the social care workforce in England, it has been reported, in a move that providers say could set back care “for years to come”.

With more than 165,000 care worker jobs vacant, and low pay driving staff to quit for better wages in retail and hospitality, care providers and councils have been clamouring for investment in recruitment and retention. Inadequate staffing levels are frequently noted as a cause of neglect and poor care by the Care Quality Commission.

However, the government is poised to water down a promise it made in the December 2021 social care white paper to dedicate £500m to “investment in knowledge, skills, health and wellbeing, and recruitment policies [that] will improve social care as a long-term career choice”. This amount could be cut to £250m.

A further £300m plan “to integrate housing into local health and care strategies with a focus on increasing the range of new supported housing options available” could also be axed, it was reported.

Skills for Care has predicted that the UK may need an extra 480,000 workers in social care by 2035 to keep pace with demand. Meanwhile, 430,000 carers could be lost in the next 10 years if those aged 55 and over decide to retire.

Government ‘to cut £250m from social care workforce funding’ in England | Care workers | The Guardian

 French President Emmanuel Macron bypassed parliament and enacted a controversial pension reform package on Thursday, triggering riots and arson on the streets of Paris. The move, which raises France’s retirement age to 64, had already caused months of strikes and protests.

Macron invoked a special constitutional power to pass the bill, immediately before a vote was set to take place. Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne announced the decision in the National Assembly, as opposition lawmakers booed, jeered, and sang.

Under the power invoked by Macron and Borne, the bill is considered passed unless a majority of lawmakers file a motion of no confidence against the government in the next 24 hours. Right-wing leader Marine Le Pen said that her National Rally party would back such a motion, as did a number of leftist leaders.

Macron has argued for months that France’s pension system will go bankrupt unless citizens pump more money into the system. Raising the retirement age from 62 to 64 – which would still see French workers retire earlier than most of their European counterparts – would be a “just and responsible” way to achieve this, he said in January.

France’s trade unions – who have protested the reforms since last year – have argued that the system should instead be buoyed by increasing taxes on the wealthy.

Thousands of protesters gathered in Paris as Macron’s bill was passed. Near parliament buildings, police fired tear gas at the demonstrators and faced off against the crowd in lines.

Rioters set fires and blocked roads throughout the French capital, as groups of masked protesters clashed with riot police.Prior to the bill’s passage, almost half a million people protested in cities across France on Wednesday, according to figures from the Interior Ministry. Police have already made 73 arrests in the capital, Le Figaro reported, citing a police source.

RT 16/3/23

Dave C

 Food inflation has accelerated in the Netherlands with prices surging 18.4% year-on-year in February from a 17.6% January reading, data shared on Tuesday by Statistics Netherlands (CBS) shows.

Clothing was also considerably more expensive, surging 11.8% last month from 9.4% in January. Experts point out that these two items in particular contributed to inflation last month, which amounted to 8%.

An economist at the third-largest Dutch bank ABN Amro, Aggie van Huisseling, said that unusually high energy prices continued to fuel inflation in the country. The increase in food prices stems mainly from the soaring costs of fresh vegetables, as products like tomatoes currently come mainly from greenhouses that are heated with gas, Van Huisseling explained.

At the same time, fuel prices eased somewhat, declining 9.4% in February compared to the same period last year, figures from the CBS showed.

According to the European harmonized consumer price index (HICP), consumer goods and services in the Netherlands were 8.9% more expensive in February than the previous year and up from 8.4% in January.

Economists from ABN Amro expect inflation to cool this year and decline to 4%, but warn that a rise in energy prices will be passed on to the cost of other products.

Annual inflation in Poland accelerated in February to the highest level since 1996, data released by the national statistics service GUS showed on Wednesday.

Consumer prices rose 18.4% year-on-year in February, up from the 16.6% recorded in the previous month.

Economists are predicting that the latest surge will mark the peak of the current cycle, but Polish consumers say they are struggling to pay household bills and buy basic groceries, with price growth at its steepest in more than a quarter of a century.

The figures show that the February reading surpassed the previous high of 17.9% recorded in October 2022, with food prices, transport and energy costs rising fastest last month.

Prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages saw the most significant annual increase in February of up to 27%, compared to 26.6% in January. Housing-related rates jumped 22.7% while the cost of heating fuel, water and central heating increased, the report said.

The Polish economy slowed in 2022 amid soaring inflation and a plunge in consumer spending brought on by the conflict in neighbouring Ukraine and the impact of sanctions on Russia.

Food prices in Finland saw a historic jump of 16.3% last month in annual terms, according to official data released on Tuesday. The figure represents the highest price growth since 1964, the country’s statistics agency reported.

Data showed that the high cost of electricity, food, and increased loan interest rates were the main drivers of inflation on an annual basis.

According to the report, the core inflation rate, which excludes food and energy prices, continued to rise sharply and reached 6.6% in February.

Jukka Appelqvist, chief economist of Finland’s Central Chamber of Commerce, said that while prices may not continue to rise as rapidly as in February, the persistence of inflationary pressures is a major economic risk. The official noted that there were no signs of an uncontrollable spiral of prices and wages falling in the country. However, he warned that a stable and low inflation rate is unlikely to happen in the near future.

The prolonged tight monetary policy and rising interest rates could lead to a deeper recession than anticipated, Appelqvist suggested.

The EU nation sank into recession in the fourth quarter last year after GDP had shrunk more than expected from the previous three-month period. The decline was led by exports, investments and consumption, official data shows.

Economists have projected a mild recession for the Finnish economy this year before a rebound in 2024.

RT 17/3/23

Dave C.

Britons are facing the biggest decline in living standards since records began in the 1950s, and the highest taxes since the World War II as the economy grinds to a halt this year, the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) reported on Wednesday.

According to the report, real household disposable income, a measure of real living standards, will drop by 5.7% over the financial years 2022-23 and 2023-24.

“While this is 1.4 percentage points less than forecast in November, it would still be the largest two-year fall since records began in 1956-57,” the report said.

A surge in energy and consumer goods prices triggered inflation, which currently stands above nominal wages and has led to a historic fall in disposable incomes, the OBR noted, adding that “this means that real living standards are still 0.4% lower than their pre-pandemic levels.”

According to the forecast, living standards will not return to pre-pandemic levels until 2028 and the tax burden remains on course to be the highest since the Second World War.

The UK “continues to see the tax burden reach a post-war high of 37.7% of GDP at the forecast horizon in 2027-28, including the highest ratio of corporation tax receipts to GDP since the tax was introduced in 1965,” the watchdog said.

The British economy is expected to shrink by 0.2% this year despite claims by the government that the country is set to avoid a recession.

RT 17/3/23

Dave C.

Statue of Limitation

Set high upon a lofty plinth

From flawless marble fashioned,

A great libertarian stands,

An advocate impassioned

By the ideal of tongues being free

To speak at will, unrestrained,

Brooking no dark despotic moves

Towards having words detained.

This patrician rhetorician

Raised in the free market place,

For all his lofty appearance,

He’s a second, hidden face

That looks in favour of free speech

And open democracy,

“Unless,” his cold eyes seem to say,

“You dare to contradict me!”

D. A.

 The drop in real household disposable income would represent “the largest two-year fall in living standards since records began in the 1950s,” Richard Hughes, chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said.

 In South Africa, men spend on average only two years in retirement.

In Eastern European countries such as Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Romania, Latvia and Russia – as well as in Argentina, Mexico, and South Africa – men spend on average less than 10 years in retirement.

Iceland, Israel and Norway have the oldest retirement ages at 67. However, life expectancy is also about 81 – meaning on average men in these countries spend 14 years in retirement.

Where in the world can you have the longest retirement? | Interactive News | Al Jazeera

 Life expectancy in the UK has grown at a slower rate than comparable countries over the past seven decades, according to researchers, who say this is the result of widening inequality.

According to a new analysis of global life expectancy rankings published in the Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine the UK lags behind all other countries in the group of G7 advanced economies except the USA.

While life expectancy has increased in absolute terms, similar countries have experienced larger increases. 

In the 1950s, the UK had one of the longest life expectancies in the world, ranking seventh globally behind countries such as Denmark, Norway and Sweden, but in 2021 the UK was ranked 29th. This was partly due to income inequality, which rose considerably in the UK during and after the 1980s.

Prof Martin McKee, of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said: “That rise also saw an increase in the variation in life expectancy between different social groups. One reason why the overall increase in life expectancy has been so sluggish in the UK is that in recent years it has fallen for poorer groups. While politicians invoke global factors, especially the effects of the pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine, the reality is that, as in the 1950s, the country suffers from major structural and institutional weaknesses.”

One of the co-authors, Dr Lucinda Hiam of Oxford University, explained, “A relative worsening of population health is evidence that all is not well. It has historically been an early sign of severe political and economic problems. This new analysis suggests that the problems the UK faces are deep-seated and raises serious questions about the path that this country is following.”

Dr Jonathan Filippon, senior lecturer in health systems at Queen Mary University of London, said social inequality had worsened in the UK and US because of the “predominant ideologies”.

“The major liberal approach to nation states inaugurated by the duo Thatcher and Reagan had disastrous consequences to their population’s levels of equality,” he said. “While markets can continue to thrive in countries – even during a crisis such as we’ve seen recently with the UK energy sector – they can also exacerbate inequalities as well.”

UK life expectancy growing at slower rate than rest of G7, research shows | Life expectancy | The Guardian