China’s Falling Population

 In China, the most populated country in the world, the birthrate is plummeting, with a 15% fall in 2020. Some cities and regions recorded drops of more than 25%. The number of new birth registrations in 2020 was 10.035m, compared with 11.8m in 2019. The 2019 figure marked the lowest point since the People’s Republic of China was founded in 1949. The government has tried to encourage couples to have more children, but a 2017 study found 50% of families with one child had no intention of having a second.

 The reasons for the low birthrates include the high costs of housing and education, and growing rejection of marriage among young women. In 2019 the marriage rate hit a 14-year low.

The decline in births has prompted warnings for China’s economy as its population ages quickly without sufficient support for all elderly people. About one-third of the population is predicted to be aged over 60 by the year 2050, and a 2019 report by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences said the state pension fund was likely to run out of money by 2035.

Prof Peter McDonald, of the University of Melbourne’s school of population and global health, said, the ongoing impact from coronavirus would be relatively small because the birth rate has been falling for years and the total population was already on a downward curve, despite the lifting of the one-child policy in 2016, which brought only a short-lived spike.

“It showed that the China fertility rate was reflecting what was going on in society, and that was that people only really wanted a small number of children,” McDonald said. “Even in areas where the one-child policy was not applied, the birthrate was low.”

Lijia Shang, a writer, journalist and social commentator, said there was a change in attitude and many women – especially urban-living and highly educated – no longer regarded marriage and parenthood as “necessary passages in life or the essential ingredients of a happy life. In another word, it is about choice. Better education, higher income and more career options grant these women the freedom to choose a lifestyle they desire. They are assertive enough to resist the pressure from their parents to produce children. And the society is more tolerant than before.”

Xiong Jing, a feminist activist based in China, said the social support system for new mothers was lacking, with inadequate parental leave, gender discrimination in the workplace, high expense and competitiveness in childcare, and social pressures on women to be the primary carer.

Liang Jianzhang, an economics professor at Peking University’s Guanghua School of Management. “If the fertility rate cannot be increased significantly, this decline will not bottom out,” he said.

China birthrate slumps as experts blame changing attitudes | China | The Guardian

The Invisible Killer

 



Air pollution caused by the burning of fossil fuels such as coal and oil was responsible for 8.7m deaths globally in 2018, which was one in five of all people who died that year. The death toll outlined in the study may even be an underestimate of the true picture, according to George Thurston, an expert in air pollution and health at the NYU school of medicine who was not involved in the research.

 The study finding more than one in 10 deaths in both the US and Europe were caused by the resulting pollution.

As well as nearly a third of deaths in eastern Asia, which includes China.

The death toll exceeds the combined total of people who die globally each year from smoking tobacco plus those who die of malaria.

 Without fossil fuel emissions, the average life expectancy of the world’s population would increase by more than a year.

“We don’t appreciate that air pollution is an invisible killer,” said Neelu Tummala, an ear, nose and throat physician at George Washington University School of Medicine and Health Sciences. “The air we breathe impacts everyone’s health but particularly children, older individuals, those on low incomes and people of color. Usually people in urban areas have the worst impacts.”

‘Invisible killer’: fossil fuels caused 8.7m deaths globally in 2018, research finds | Environment | The Guardian

Long live labour-farm labour unity!

 The farmers’ strike has changed the political picture in India. Many Modi RSS/BJP voters have become disillusioned. The nationalist Hinduvta movement has been stalled. This powerful movement is challenging the Indian government which seeks a new model of farming for India, under international pressure to replicate American or Australian model of farming in India, where the corporations control vast swathes of land for monoculture-style cash-crop farming

But socialists should be wary of placing over-optimistic hopes in the protests and the blockade of Delhi by the farmers. It’s a protest of big and small property-owners against being sold-out to global capitalist corporations, not a workers’ movement. These land-owning farmers in the past have not hesitated to repress the lower caste labourers such as the Dalits when asked for more pay or better conditions. Just because a struggle involves millions of people doesn’t make it a class struggle in the sense of a struggle between the working class and the capitalist class. The protagonists are large-and-medium-sized landowning farmers against a government that wants to introduce measures that will harm their interests and benefit corporate capitalists. It’s not anti-capitalist.

The Indian economy has always been predominantly state-capitalist since independence but it has increasingly relaxed the government control with various privatisations and removing protectionist laws to permit more foreign investment under pressure from the reality of international capital. The farmers’ resistance is combating the consequences and effects of the operation of the economic laws of capitalism. Once again, they place their illusory hopes in the regulatory power of the State to protect them. The present laws have not prevented poverty and land-grabs but they believe that the proposed new laws will exacerbate their problems. It is ultimately a futile fight but if the farmers don’t resist, they may as well roll over and be walked all over.

The proposed new farming laws are said to allow private corporate players a greater role in the farming sector, which the government assures will not hurt farmers’ incomes. They take farmers out of the state-controlled markets, so they can take advantage of higher prices. Socialists need to be aware that many of the farmers unions are not representing the small basically subsistence farmer or the landless agricultural labourers but are acting in the interest of the better-off commercial farmers who perceive a threat to their incomes. Small and marginal farmers with less than two hectares of land account for 86.2% of all farmers and  these 126 million farmers together owned about 74.4 million hectares of land —or an average holding of just 0.6 hectares each.  It is they who lack the political organised clout which is in the hands of the semi-medium and medium landholding farmers who account for 13.2% of all farmers, but own 43.6% of crop area

These deep structural problems with Indian farming – productivity with other comparable countries show how bad it is. But the problems are very much infrastructure, as in transport, storage, the accompanying wastage but perhaps the most crippling thing is the never-ending debt incurred by farmers, not just from the banks but the traditional money-lenders.

The Delhi blockade is mainly Punjabi Sikh dominated but the movement is nation-wide, multi-cultural and involves the trade unions acting in solidarity. As with most anti-government protests, grievances spread and become incorporated in a general strike. Circumstances arise that highlights fundamental conflicts of interests between the capitalist class and its subordinate and subjugated subservient suppliers.

When the potential of such struggles transcend sectional interests then we cannot with-hold our solidarity but instead we should reach out with the socialist analysis and answer to the problem. Small farming in Asia is dependent for success on mutual aid, helping each other out on shared schemes such as machinery hire, irrigation and cooperatives. Dog-eat-dog rivalry over a bone between them would be suicidal for survival. They develop their own local customs of decision-making, often outside the State’s officialdom.

It is a rare moment in Indian history that the divisive  barriers of religion, caste and ethnicity is being eliminated as farmers recognise their collective problems and get together in this fight, casting away the caste prejudices  that were deeply entrenched within rural districts. Punjab’s largest farmer union has overcome the caste divide and has begun to support Dalit’s demand for land rights.

It’s increasingly leading to the emergence of a massive united farmers’ front of all the religions, Hindu/ Sikh/Muslim. These protests have also saw the merging of the urban and the rural populations as the general public in the towns express their sympathy with the farmers and extend support, seldom seen in any previous protest movements. Unity is the biggest strength of this movement.  It should be noted how the protesters immediately distanced themselves from the flying of a Sikh separatist flag at the Red Fort and re-emphasised the secularism of the protests. The strike and protests rather than fighting each other has brought a fresh understanding that brought the different communities closer together.  We are very careful not to say what is occurring in India is a socialist movement. But it is contributing to a change in political consciousness within the rural communities, where people are identifying shared problems and engaging in a common cause to resist government policies that they perceive as a threat to their livelihoods and standard of living. In addition, another cultural change is occurring, women have taken on the entire responsibility of managing their farms and households back in Punjab while the men-folk camp-out at Delhi.

The movement is exercising more control over its leadership.  Some reports say this is a relatively leader-free movement, or perhaps multi-leader is better way of describing it, having too many leaders and organisations for any to dominate. It may have its roots in a fairly conservative society but it is reminding all that there is still power in the streets.

 If the farmers are destined to prosper, and remain out of poverty, to improve their lot in life, they must set aside their own sectional interests and adopt the socialist case for the ending of capitalism. The farmer’s position, impoverished or well-off is essentially the same as the worker’s: that of a wage slave. The farmer neither shares in the bounties of the harvests nor benefits from the subservience to the government food ministries. There was no escape for the farmer other than the socialist one.

We know all resistance to the capitalists is eventually doomed if they and their State are determined to prevail and fully incorporate India’s farming into the world market where the global businesses hold the power over food production. It is unstoppable and can only be delayed. India is not the only region facing the exact same attacks on traditional small-holder farming methods. But it is the struggle to fight back which is important as it is in this strike that people are discovering solidarity and unity against the religious and cultural differences which had been used previously to keep people divided. 

Contrasting Policies on Refugees

 Colombia announced that the country would grant temporary protection status to around one million undocumented migrants from Venezuela after which they can apply for a residence visa. Under the new status, the migrants will receive basic services such as access to the national health system and COVID-19 vaccination.

Filippo Grandi, the UN high commissioner for refugees said, “This bold humanitarian gesture serves as an example for the region and the rest of the world.”

Meanwhile, after the European Court of Justice ruled that Hungary’s deportation of refugees to Serbia was unlawful, Viktor Orban’s government is ignoring the judgement — and continuing to deport refugees. 



The Hungarian government is making no attempt to conceal its violation of the law. These “pushbacks” contravene international treaties to which Hungary is a signatory, such as the Geneva Convention.  Orban, and several members of his government have repeatedly confirmed that they intend to continue the practice.



How Hungary is violating EU law on refugees | Europe| News and current affairs from around the continent | DW | 08.02.2021

Another business opportunity

 Biden is receiving praise from many liberals for imposing certain controls over the sale of arms to Saudi Arabia to ensure they are not used in its involvement in the civil war in Yemen.

However, the UK response is that what the US does is America’s business and Britain will continue to provide Saudi Arabia with weapons to be deployed against the Houthis. 

And there are other countries very happy to supply Saudi’s with armaments.

In a statement, the Chinese foreign ministry said China and Saudi Arabia are “comprehensive strategic partners” and “maintain friendly cooperation in all areas, including in the area of arms sales”. 

 Saudi Arabia has a growing share of business with Russia. According to Rostec’s CEO, Saudi Arabia is currently in talks with Russia to purchase the S400 missile systems. This came following a bilateral agreement reached during a visit by Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz to Moscow in October 2017, marking the first visit by a Saudi monarch to Russia.   Russia’s Sputnik also reported that Saudi Arabia would finalise a deal to domestically produce Russian Kalashnikov rifles.




An investors’ economy?

 Much has been claimed about “citizens” capitalism of how mobile telephone apps operated by the likes of Robinhood  makes buying shares easier and along with using social media the small investor can challenge the Wall St giant hedge funds. 

But reality begs to differ. 

Nearly half of Americans own no stock at all.

 Another quarter of the population have 401(k) retirement funds under $23,000

With bank account interest hovering around zero percent and at least a third of American families with nothing to invest, there’s little chance that the poorest among us could participate in the passive get-rich savings plan of stock ownership.

The richest 10% of Americans own 84 percent of all stocks.

People who have money can buy stocks, wait for awhile, and ultimately get richer by doing nothing. But low-income Americans have to depend on wages for their fair share of national economic growth—and wages have barely budged in over 50 years

Opinion | The Year of Cheating the Poor (commondreams.org)

Government Spooks

 Many will have read in the Guardian of a secretive government department that conducted intelligence operations against those who could termed political dissidents. 

A Socialist Party member, the late Peter Newell, had did his own research and investigation some years ago into this tool of the police state.

The Information Research Department was formed in 1948. The then junior minister at the Foreign Office in Attlee’s Labour Government, Christopher Mayhew, claims the credit for its creation. 

Ostensibly concerned to combat Soviet “imperialism” and “communism”,  the IRD also actively aided right-wing politicians in the Labour Party and within the trade unions, collaborating with various CIA fronts. It was financed in the same way as the other British spying and security services are funded, with no transparency or accountability to Parliament. The IRD infiltrated and influenced the media and in particularly the BBC. 

Peter Newell references the Information Research Department in two articles. 

Marx, the Cold War and the Spooks: Marx, the Cold War and the “Spooks”

Marx, the Cold War and the Spooks: Secret History – How the British government controls and censors the news

His notes and sources can be read here:

Marx, the Cold War and the Spooks: Information Research Department – Notes and Quotes

Fact of the Day

The percentage of U.S. privately owned wealth which is held by the richest 1% has risen from 5% in 1990 to 36% today, more than a seven-fold increase. At this rate of increase the richest 1% are heading to own the entire country by around the year 2035. 

There has been roughly doubling their percentage of America’s privately owned wealth every decade since 1990; and, at that rate, they’d reach 72% by around the year 2030.

America’s Richest 1% Owned 5% in 1990, Own 36% Today — Strategic Culture (strategic-culture.org)

The Myanmar Military Takeover

Many foreign companies have moved factories from China to Myanmar in recent years to take advantage of lower wages and a pliant work-force. Total trade in goods between Myanmar and the United States amounted to nearly $1.3 billion in the first 11 months of 2020, up from $1.2 billion in all of 2019. Clothes and shoes accounted for 41% of total U.S. goods imports, followed by luggage (Samsonite), which accounted for nearly 30%. LL Bean, H&M and Adidas are among the importers. These corporations were all willing to trade with Myanmar’s military who controlled prominent companies in the country.

(see SOCIALISM OR YOUR MONEY BACK: The Myanmar Army’s Business Network)

Back in 2015, when the world’s media was hailing the arrival of “democracy” in Myanmar, bestowing Aung San Suu Kyi with honours, (then later withdrawing them for her collaboration in the persecution of the Rohingya),  our journal was warning that the Burmese army had not at all ceded political power but that Aung San Suu Kyi only held office as a proxy for the military.

(see Material World: Burma – More Rounds To Go (worldsocialism.org)

Our assessment is supported by this comment on the current situation by Thinzar Shunlei Yi, a human rights activist based in Yangon.

“The military was already in power – even the ruling NLD was covering up their [genocide] in the ICJ [International Court of Justice]. The facade of democracy in Myanmar had now crumbled, she said. “It’s not real, it’s not genuine, we’re not going anywhere with this framework.”

( see Fears army will tighten grip in Myanmar after Aung San Suu Kyi detained | Myanmar | The Guardian )

The claims by the military that there was widespread fraud in the recent elections were true but not as they would like the world to believe. The Election Commission canceled voting in many areas where parties critical of the government were probably going to win seats. Marginalised ethnic minority groups in conflict-plagued regions of Myanmar, were excluded in their homelands notably in Shan, Kachin and Karen, not to mention the Rohingya in Racine, from the vote.  More than one million people were estimated to have been disenfranchised in a gerrymandered election, fully approved by those now deposed and detained.

Chickens have come home to roost.

Having said all that, the World Socialist Movement cannot condone a military dictatorship of any kind and we condemn the army takeover for depriving our Myanmar fellow-workers of even the most limited liberties that they possessed. But our fellow-workers should also recognise the hypocrisy of those world politicians pretending indignation at the actions of the Myanmar military.